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First, if you haven’t already done so, go out and read this masterful article by Lockefox on TMC.  It is — by far — the best thing written on TMC so far this year, an incisive, well-researched article into the history of moon-goo in general and its impact on the CFC in particular.  Go read it, in full.  I’ll wait.

Back?  OK, let’s talk about it.  In particular, I want to call your attention to this graph on page three:

That single little graph, more than any other factor, is probably what sealed the fate of TEST in Fountain.  It documents the collapse of a financial empire that makes the Great Depression’s tumble pale by comparison.  Presented in that context, the doom of anyone near CFC territory holding the new R64s is obvious.  If tech was a drug, that graph charts the withdrawal symptoms and they ain’t pretty.  The corresponding graph detailing the prices of the new R64s post-Odyssey finished the job.  That thick green line, showing the average price of R64s at a bit over 20k ISK per unit tells the tale.  As I write this, technetium is below 14k per unit.  At 80k per unit for tech, the future of the CFC’s empire was secure.  At 25k or less?  Not so much.

Short version: even if the CFC held every moon in EVE, they probably couldn’t finance the lavish ship replacement program that their empire was built on.

I could have easily called the blog post “Be careful what you wish for”.  Or just maybe “The heavens blaze forth the death of Princes”.  I’ll let Mord Fiddle have that second title, because I can’t imagine it’s too long before he starts gloating.  I just checked.  He hasn’t posted his CFC post-moon analysis.  It’s definitely coming.  I can feel it.

So let me say it again and let’s talk about this bit in particular: even if the CFC held every moon in EVE, they couldn’t finance the lavish ship replacement program that their empire has been built on. 

CCP has… very quietly… very sneakily… given people what they’ve been asking for for going on four years now.  We live in a post-moon New Eden.  Sure, moons are still going to be valuable.  At today’s prices depending on the size of the tower, dysprosium and neodymium are going to be worth about 1.5 billion a month, promethium about 1.3 or so.  It’s not money to turn your nose up at.  But it’s also not the seven or eight or more billion per month that tech once poured into an alliance’s coffers every moon.  After those three moon-goos, the values drop precipitously.  Tech is barely worth a half billion per moon per month.  A few moons have to be mined at a loss.

We live in a post-moon New Eden.  And it happened very quietly while most of EVE wasn’t looking.  Now we have to stop and seriously consider: are things about to get better or worse?

The CFC had a long, long time to think about this.  We were hearing about their post-moon plans and strategies and ideas as long as two years ago.  But I’m not convinced they ever really actually truly believed it would happen.  Make no mistake: the CFC is addicted to its SRP.  But now the bottle is empty, the liquor store is closed and bankrupt, and the alcoholic is looking around in a bit of a bleary stupor wondering where the next fix is coming from.  And the answer has come down from on high…

…pubbie scrublords.

Pubbie scrublord money is where the next fix is coming from.  Goons are about to become that very thing they have despised forever: slumlord renters with a contact list even more full of blues, their space full of blue Tengus and Ishtars and Retrievers and Taloses and even PvE battleships that they aren’t allowed to shoot… that they aren’t even allowed to think about shooting… that they aren’t even allowed to scam into thinking that they might shoot.  Oh dear Heaven, how the mighty have fallen.

And what makes it doubly glorious is that the long asked-for treaties and rent control measures that EVE’s existing slumlords have been asking for for about a thousand years aren’t in the game.  The fixes and changes and mechanics that could have made this at least semi-palatable to the average Goon — that CFC leadership could have started stomping their feet to obtain two years ago — are not in place and aren’t going to be in place.  Meaning that CFC leadership had to announce a little bit shame-facedly that Goons aren’t allowed to scam would-be renters any more because of the danger of scaring off the real renters that they are so desperately going to need… nowish.

Wherever SirMolle is, he’s cracking a beer and having a good long laugh.

Anyway, the full court press to convince Goons that this is a good thing — really! — has begun in earnest, spear-headed by that very same TMC.  All the while, CFC members are also doing their very best to convince themselves that they are definitely not Band of Brothers… mostly I think because they’re saying they aren’t expecting their renters to die gloriously for them as cannon fodder or even to form up to defend their homes because Goons — Goons! — Goons! — will be doing it for them!

And holy crap I can’t believe I just typed that.

When The Mittani was bounced off CSM7 last year, one of the things he said in his first GSF address to the troops afterward was that he wasn’t even all that upset about it.  The reason was because being a good CSM member — whose job it was to stand up for EVE players — and being a good Goon — whose job it is to troll and torture EVE players — were fundamentally incompatible goals.  Needless to say, it’s going to be quite interesting watching GSF having to adjust to having some pubbies that they have to treat well and protect while having other pubbies that they can still gank in high-sec somewhere.

But finally, let’s come briefly back to the question I asked earlier: is this better or worse for New Eden?  And that I think deserves a post to itself.  Look for that tomorrow.

Ripard Teg

If you would like to read more we invite you to visit his blog here.

57 Comments

  1. morebortsigns

    very interesting article.

    August 16, 2013 at 9:27 am Reply
  2. Dumbledore

    To paraphrase a certain African leader: “Yes, they may be pubbie scrublords, but they’re OUR pubbie scrublords.”

    (Well that phrase might have been said by about three dozen leaders elsewhere too)

    August 16, 2013 at 9:33 am Reply
  3. lol vile rat

    vile rat was a piece of shit
    better place wit out him
    fuk mittani

    August 16, 2013 at 9:35 am Reply
    1. Fartolio

      wut, back then baddies killed your Shiteron Mark 69 full of tritanium, and you still butthurt?

      August 16, 2013 at 10:25 am Reply
    2. Sieveboy

      Oh fuck off you disgusting animal. The Vile Rat is dead, let him and his family have a little bit of dignity in death.

      August 16, 2013 at 12:11 pm Reply
      1. holocaust

        Yes Vile Rat no longer flies the heavens that is EVE Online, and some say the game is better of without him. I could agree or disagree, but that doesn’t matter. The character Vile Rat is no longer in this game.
        He is better of without this game.

        However Goons shouldn’t start yelling for the moral highground, when they are no strangers to making fun of other people’s real life problems and episodes. And use it as firewood in a game about pixels.

        August 20, 2013 at 10:24 am Reply
        1. rkanon

          I hate goons to be sure and like I said earlier…if I saw one on fire and I had a glass of water I’d drink it…BUT
          That’s an in-game thing. It’s the shit they do out of game like suggesting everybody harass a potentially suicidal player until he DOES suicide for real…or making fun of a player in-game who died in real life.
          It was my understanding that Vile Rat, himself, did this very thing. (If that’s true) then while I don’t think it’s cool to turn his death into a joke I don’t see where goons have any business getting all up in arms about people returning the favor in kind.

          I will say though that every time I hear on NPR or some other news organization talk about the incident they always mention the diplomat by name and then the other people who were killed as “3 others” as if their names aren’t important that always irritates the shit out of me no matter that he was a goon or not.

          August 22, 2013 at 7:37 pm Reply
    3. nono not good

      Even for the internetz this is bad.

      You should feel bad.

      August 16, 2013 at 12:38 pm Reply
    4. Daniel Plain

      i really hope this is a terrible joke. you are bashing a husband and father who was playing a bad guy in a game that is all about being a bad guy. he was winning EVE as far as i am concerned.

      to reiterate: a man is dead and his family is grieving. and you feel it appropriate to trash talk about him because he was better at playing a game. gg wp faggot.

      August 16, 2013 at 1:22 pm Reply
      1. yolo

        he was pointing at vile rat , not the guy that controlled him , dead goon = good goon no matter how he leaves the game

        August 16, 2013 at 1:54 pm Reply
        1. Sieveboy

          I think you are failing at reading:

          “vile rat was a piece of shit
          better place wit out him”

          We are without vile rat cause some Mohamed loving turds killed him because he was an American. Seriously, VR didn’t leave eve by choice, he was murdered and taken from us, like him or not I think you are wrong and you should feel bad. This shit isn’t funny or amusing at all, leave VR alone, his family (wife and kids under 5) lost their father and you are being a dick about it.

          August 16, 2013 at 2:23 pm Reply
          1. Dennis the Dreamer

            When Vile Rat is shitting people in game, in real life karma took him away. And of course this is just a pixel game, but on the other side of the tube is another human being.

            August 16, 2013 at 5:28 pm
          2. Takezo Kensei

            when you send drones to kill women & kids, sometimes you’ll find a while afterwards that karma can be a bitch, eh?

            August 16, 2013 at 11:41 pm
          3. TestiTest

            there is no honor in insulting the dead, there is no honor in spit on a dead.
            even
            when you didn’t like the dead, respect the dead. the family is
            destroyed, they will always miss their husband or father. this has
            nothing to do with eve, it doesn’t matter if vile rat did good or bad in
            eve that is just a point of view, and doesn’t matter. i fight goons,
            cause i like to fight, i don’t like this spy metagame and real life lies
            etc. but all this has nothing to do with someone who died to
            seperatists some people call terrorists.

            And yes the person that played Vile Rat died to people who don’t like the american style of influence in their culture. Also the Industry interests. Neither did they like how drones kill sometimes innocent, but there is no country in this world what doesn’t do the same what america do. Europe, Russia, China, other Asian Countrys, Sout America lead by Brazil. All just follow interests, also does the middle east do, and the so called fanatics who never understood the koran in my oppinion, neither did any christian church understood the words of jesus. Religion is evil, believing in something or god as i prefer is necessary and good. Also it’s necessary to educate yourself and read, learn, and smile when the Wheel of Time always reflect how humans little evolved, beside Technology.

            August 17, 2013 at 8:21 pm
          4. Tegiminis

            You are literal scum.

            August 18, 2013 at 9:46 am
          5. CarlGustav

            Hoestly Your what’s wrong with the world

            Its a game FFS saying well he was doing something wrong in game so he deserved to die is a horrible standing point. SHAME ON YOU !

            Now go stand in the corner and don’t you dare come out.

            August 19, 2013 at 1:56 pm
          6. Dave The Rave

            You are biting at a troll, you are a retard.

            August 16, 2013 at 5:32 pm
          7. Osama Eve Laden

            VR is dead. deal with it. ALLAH AK BAH!!!

            August 17, 2013 at 2:37 am
    5. padiio

      All the EVE wishes you to go “suck a duck” for your idiotic way of thinking…

      August 16, 2013 at 4:30 pm Reply
    6. Takezo Kensei

      Totally agree..

      August 16, 2013 at 7:29 pm Reply
  4. JG

    Interesting article but i believe it very very fatalist when it comes to GSF srp pocket. They lived under the moon throne for 2 years and its to expect a massive srp fund. Hence the war for moons. Either way looking foward to the next article. this site needs some disinfectant sprays cause of Gey Govlin.

    August 16, 2013 at 10:53 am Reply
  5. troll

    And you know, CFC members are correct – they are not Band of Brothers. In fact CFC in reality is what some people would call “botched Hollywood remake of BoB”.

    I’m going to laugh my ass off when CFC starts forcing it’s members to form up in order guard null entrances to keep away those hostile forces who’d oh so want to pillage in the nullbear land. Now the question is would average CFC member think that playing babysitter is fun or not?
    I mean those guys have been indoctrinated for years that if they see miner jump into catalyst and blow that filthy thing away, now to think of i just might re-sub and apply for membership in nullbear corp in order to fly circles around CFC “elite” PVP guys with shiny retriever.

    August 16, 2013 at 11:24 am Reply
    1. briancnelson

      Why on earth would you think they would defend renters from anything except possibly a full on of war? No one else does. Basically, the CFC will rake in glorious cash, and the members will have someone else to act as flypaper and keep reds out of actual CFC ratting systems. Sure, there are a few sore heads who will be cranky about it, but so long as the gooniest principal is followed, no one will bitch too hard.

      That principle, in case you were wondering, is shit on the rest of eve and laugh at them while they try to clean it off. Adaptation keeps them on top, where the shit can continue to roll downhill.

      August 16, 2013 at 11:43 pm Reply
      1. Goons? Not now....

        Technically, those nullbears are a part of the rest of EvE. They are not CFC or GSF. They are simply blue. Some good ones may fleet up if the CFC needs help, but the majority will maybe give it a half-hearted attempt, shrug, and move to greener pastures while dreaming of ye olden Drone Lands.
        So your principle, the one you supposedly adhere to, just got crapped on. Face it, unless you really do gank em, you are no longer the GSF of old. Just the largest renter empire thus far.
        P.S. I look forward to watching you defend your…..”Serfs”, from the likes of Black Legion. And by “defend” I mean “Attempt to Defend”.

        August 17, 2013 at 11:06 am Reply
        1. farts

          ~~~GSF OF OLD~~~
          you are really fucking dumb fyi

          August 18, 2013 at 10:47 pm Reply
  6. Shadowblade1436

    I’m confused, why does everyone assume goons would have to treat their renters well? I mean no one else in eve has ever treat renters well… renters are treated worse than pets, and you know why, because they can alway find more noobs in empire willing to rent… ask ~A~ they treated their renters like crap for years… Hell Red Overlord use to hot drop ~A~ renters with ~A~’s blessing… I know because I was a ~A~ renter 2-3 years ago. I know renters now in drone region, N3/PL isn’t any better.

    August 16, 2013 at 12:20 pm Reply
    1. Solai

      Even renters have dignity. How much isk is it worth to be mistreated, and how badly mistreated? Based on my experience with these things called human beings, it doesn’t take much disrespect to prompt people to break their agreements, pack up, and go elsewhere, or to find more cunning and destructive schemes. If CFC leadership is clear eyed and rationally goal oriented, they will find that it is critical for the financial sheet for their renters to be *genuinely happy* with the service they pay for.

      If we mistreat our renters, we’re undermining our interests on par with not defending our moons or not honoring our coalition allies. And everyone with a brain(which indeed CFC leaders absolutely possess) knows this.

      August 16, 2013 at 2:35 pm Reply
      1. Dinsdale Pirannha

        Right, until goons get CCP to wipe out high sec income, so renters have nowhere to go. The theme of the winter release is announced in less than a week at Gamescom. It will undoubtedly be about how poor null sec industry still is, how far too easy and rich high sec industry is, and how there will be massive changes to both, which will dovetail nicely with goons have in mind for null sec space.

        August 16, 2013 at 10:02 pm Reply
        1. Pregnant Wombat

          high sec income can’t be wiped out. There will always be a way to make isk in high sec. If anything, all it does is just lower the cost of purchasing things in high sec, and vastly increase the value of items in null. That’s it. Don’t expect high sec carebears to just come to you because you take their isk away. They will get their isk worth one way or the other. Either directly or indirectly with deflation.

          August 17, 2013 at 9:18 pm Reply
    2. Rob

      From region renters are not bad off. If they are too dumb to not get killed, then they have to learn lessons, nothing a protective force can do for stupidity I’m afraid.

      August 17, 2013 at 1:20 pm Reply
      1. Rob

        Drone regions*

        August 17, 2013 at 1:21 pm Reply
    3. rkanon

      I disagree about N3 – if you’re not an idiot and don’t expect to have your hand held and your butt wiped N3 are the most decent landlords I’ve ever dealt with.

      You start whining about someone to transport your stuff or aren’t experienced enough to be self sufficient then you’ll have someone telling you exactly how stupid you are but that’s your own fault.

      August 22, 2013 at 7:22 pm Reply
  7. leaks

    Btw, Riverini, where did you put the submissions and leaks link? can’t find it anymore…

    August 16, 2013 at 1:43 pm Reply
  8. Dheeradj Nurgle

    Wherever Sir Molle is? In 401k :p

    August 16, 2013 at 2:17 pm Reply
  9. butt hurt

    I thought this article was about the alliance That Escalated Quickly. YOU TRICKED ME!!!!

    August 16, 2013 at 2:23 pm Reply
    1. lol

      That alliance imploded. Silas Hangman is a faggot.

      August 16, 2013 at 4:06 pm Reply
  10. Solai

    Good article except for one thing that disappointed me:
    Where Ripard’s thoughts are not excessively hyperbolic, does not generally trot out over-simplified tribal narratives, nor is he confidently full of unsupportable tin-foil theories, he laud’s another writer who blatantly is all of those. It’s like reading your local paper’s editor say, “Hey, but after reading this, go check out some Rush Limbaugh!”
    Disappointing.

    August 16, 2013 at 2:45 pm Reply
  11. goonloon

    Ripard, catch a clue when you are being used. Ripard Teg being used now to do the propaganda of Goons with the new message “don’t worry renting from goons is safe now, really, I said really, please really…”

    August 16, 2013 at 4:13 pm Reply
    1. rkanon

      I don’t believe that’s what he said at all. And anybody who knows anything about goons at all wouldn’t believe that even if he stated it as implicitly and earnestly as humanly possible.

      If I saw a goon on fire and I had a glass of water…I’d drink it.

      August 22, 2013 at 7:18 pm Reply
  12. 2.4

    Goons will still be goons…

    Sorry to “leak” anything here, BUT GSF already have a harassment thing going on. They’re going to have alts harass their renters while blues do the scouting.

    Also, moons have ALOT more income then they like to say. Prime example to anyone reading this. If any of you found a goldmine in your backyard. Who here would advertise it? And who would setup the door in their basement away from view?

    Yeah, that’s right, everyone here with half a brain would keep their mouths shut and mine the gold as quietly as possible.

    Goons are only doing the rental program until their wallets are full again and the moons are setup.

    Then mark my works, every renter WILL GET FUCKED OVER. As the biggest scam in EVE history happens.

    That will be newsworthy, CCP will use it for advertising, then they’ll look the otherway while GSF dictators continue their RMT operations.

    August 16, 2013 at 4:34 pm Reply
    1. Decker

      Dah Fuq! Tin-foil hats AWAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY

      August 16, 2013 at 6:04 pm Reply
    2. Mith

      Huge monthly fees for sov, jump bridges, pos’s, fueling all of said JB’s and POS’s, the largest SRP in game, one of the most comprehensive SRP’s in game, capital ship give-away, blew what, 2-3 trillion on Fountain war? Bought mercs, paid for mercs cap losses. How do Goons RMT everything if so much is being spent on the alliance and CFC as a whole? Biggest source of real money isn’t RMT’ing, it is running a social media site that generates real revenue with legitimately. The success of that social media site is dependent on the continued success and victories of CFC. Isk goes to the CFC, CFC provides content for media sites, media sites prosper with real money.

      August 17, 2013 at 9:09 pm Reply
  13. Billbo

    “Wherever SirMolle is, he’s cracking a beer and having a good long laugh.”

    and in the process of reclaiming excalibur and planning BoB/IT BBQ 2013

    August 16, 2013 at 4:43 pm Reply
  14. Provi Miner

    Again changing the goons is going to impossible, a history a culture of scams, shooting shit for giggles and so forth. There is zero chance of them not doing it now. If you choose to rent in goon space be prepared that goon that just flew by? Yeah he is wondering how much trouble can he really get into by popping you, or as a poster below said “blues scouting for nuet alts”. There in lays the real problem as land lords you have obligations you will be spending tons of eve hours hunting alts all across goon space, just so some pve nightmare BS pilot who you don’t like can rat in safty. No way do goons go for this at any level other then those who have already said good by to the game and hello to the goon empire (read leadership). Good luck

    August 16, 2013 at 4:54 pm Reply
  15. SomeGuyHere

    So refreshing to read an actually good article here.

    August 16, 2013 at 4:56 pm Reply
    1. Dennis the Dreamer

      So true.

      August 16, 2013 at 5:20 pm Reply
  16. Iaminyourempirerentingyourspac

    This was all planned at the BBQ in 2008.

    August 16, 2013 at 5:10 pm Reply
  17. ShitRobot

    Does anyone know what % of prior goon income came from moons? It may be possible, but I’m not convinced that they can’t sustain themselves due to moon changes. How much of their income is “conventional?” And how much does Aryth and his crew and others like him pull in? I have no idea, but many alliances control moons, maybe what set the goons apart was their economic schemes. For example, what are they making off this ice thing? Maybe they don’t make insane money there either, but maybe it’s more profittable than moons, I just don’t know. There’s too many unknowns to be sure about any of this. Until you know where goon money came from in the first place it’s foolish to jump to conclusions.

    Their unexpected entry into the rental market may be an indicator, however you also have to remember they just picked up a region- maybe several in a few weeks. Maybe the just have more space than they know what to do with. Until someone publishes internal goon economic data we’ll just have to settle for not knowing.

    August 16, 2013 at 6:11 pm Reply
    1. Just saying

      GSF alone had 329 tech moons(this is well known, as GSF boasted about it when they beat dotbro’s), which pulled in 9 bil a month when the dotbro conflict ended, which is about 2.9 tril a month. No idea what the rest of the CFC alliances were pulling in, but 2.9 tril won’t be matched in “conventional” income whatever that means, and it won’t matched in rental space ether.

      August 16, 2013 at 7:13 pm Reply
  18. Joe Knows

    Alt accounts solve the problem…get a clue.

    August 16, 2013 at 6:31 pm Reply
  19. NC.........

    New target, goon renters, hit the unprotected where it hurts

    August 17, 2013 at 12:13 pm Reply
    1. Random CFC Grunt

      Yeah, NCDOT, Nulli, AAA, RA, PL and many other renter-lords always cared so much about protecting their renters… yeah… goons will undoubtfully do exactly the same.

      August 17, 2013 at 4:33 pm Reply
  20. Durk

    So what forums do I go to to make fun of Goons becoming carebearprotectors?

    August 17, 2013 at 12:25 pm Reply
    1. Random CFC Grunt

      Nobody ever said about being their protectors, Blue standing will be their protection from us and if someone tries to take their sov – we’ll obviously try to stop them. If this makes us carebear protectors – so be it, I don’t really care about it apart from having a fully working SRP.

      August 17, 2013 at 4:32 pm Reply
  21. John Masters

    IT’s A TRAP!
    Mark my words.
    He who trusts a Goon is a deadman.

    August 18, 2013 at 2:16 am Reply
  22. Tegiminis

    I am perfectly open to op-eds from those who wish to criticize the CFC renter program. If you can write eloquently and present a case other than “fuck goons because i hate them,” feel free to let me know. This goes for anyone who reads this comment; my concern is with good writing, not partisan EVE alliance bickering. Present a good piece, and you’ll get hired.

    I’m not goon affiliated and approved all three of those articles. Two are simple c/p pieces based on internal CFC communications, and the third (the analysis of renter income) was a neutral piece by a non-CFC writer. There was no spearhead attempt; CFC enabling renters is news, as evidenced by the numerous EVE sites that have picked it up.

    I hold no truck with your silly internet spaceship demagoguery. I wish some days that you could see the backend of TMC’s writing system, because it’s not so nearly conspiracy-driven as you – or anyone else on EN24 – make it out to be.

    August 18, 2013 at 9:55 am Reply
  23. U know who

    Goons are adding supply to an already saturated rental market. Outside of goon altcorps renting, they would likely be the landlord of last resort for just about anyone with half a brain. I would be surprised to see them command rental fees matching Nulli or PL. I’m pretty sure as soon as CFC figures a way to replace rental income the first order of business will be to victimize the renter base and have a good laugh.

    August 19, 2013 at 8:49 pm Reply

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