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ships_carriers

While the battle at Z9PP-H was unable to complete due to node crash, it’s a singular fight in that capital ships came out to play in force, and both sides in the fight have said that they had additional caps and supercap fleets on stand-by waiting to enter the fray.

Given the number of players in the system and the degree of TiDi encountered by players on the ground, it’s not surprising that neither side chose to deploy their back-up fleets. Clusterfuck Coalition (CFC) has justifiably claimed victory based on the number of Test Alliance Please Ignore and allied capital ship kills. Further, the CFC forces had a large Test capital fleet bubbled and in trouble at the time the node finally went down.

However, the peril of the bubbled Test capital fleet doesn’t necessarily mean that the node crash saved Test, Pandemic Legion (PL), and N3’s collective bacon. In fact there are reasons to believe that the opposite may be true.

As I’ve written in a number of prior posts, large-scale sov warfare is won or lost when one side cedes the supercapital high-ground to the enemy. When one side of a nullsec scrap becomes risk-averse when it comes to deploying supercaps, the other side simply rolls over them, dropping SBUs in system after system while the defenders retreat; their subcapital fleets effectively useless absent credible supercapital cover.

Until now, the ongoing war between CFC and the Test, PL and N3 allies (TPN), both sides have been cautious about large-scale capital and supercapital deployents in battles over final timers. The battle at Z9PP-H indicates that the TPN allies have changed their posture and are willing to put substantive capital ship fleets in harms way in order to draw CFC’s capitals and supercapitals into a stand-up fight. That would mean the allies are confident in their ability to win a cap/supercap war of attrition even if the CFC shows themselves capable of holding their own, or even pulling out marginal wins in supercapital slapdowns.

Given the outcome in Z9PP-H, we may see CFC adopt the tactic of attacking bait capital fleets and then rushing additional players into the system, slowing the node down sufficiently to make jumping backup capital fleets into system a high risk option for the allies. ‘Crashing the node’ was a common tactic employed by the old Northern Coalition in their battles with the Drone Russian Federation upon a time and those lessons will not have been forgotten by Goonswarm. However, it is a tactic that can backfire if the CFC is unable to anticipate where the enemy capitals will strike, if they strike at multiple locations at once (preventing CFC from pre-positioning the numbers needed to crash the node), or if CCP is able to reinforce the node sufficiently so its performance doesn’t degrade enough to keep TPN allied backup fleets out of the fight.

If the allies follow Black Legion’s example and begin deploying capital fleets agressively, CFC will be put in a position in which they’re forced to respond with their own capital ships on the enemy’s time-table, or abandon their Fountain beachhead. In the former case, CFC will have to go all in and bet the house on a series of large-scale battles that will likely decide the outcome of the campaign. If, however, CFC chooses to let the Fountain beachhead collapse, they virtually guarantee that the TPN allies will invade CFC space and begin a march on Mittanigrad. That would gain the CFC more time to attempt diplomatic manuverings to distract or divide the enemy camp, but would be seen as a sign of weakness and an admission that the CFC supercapitals cannot contest the ultimate high ground with the enemy.

There is a certain irony to CFC’s situation at present. Their foreign policy since ascending to nullsec’s technetium throne was heavily occupied with the elimination of any entity that might pose an extintion level threat to the CFC. This was supposed to bring in an era of stability in which the CFC could rest easily upon their sovereign territory and orchestrate a new economic sphere of influence in nullsec that would allow them to project power across the whole of New Eden. However, in their attempts to eliminate or emasculate potential external threats the CFC has created the very extintion level threat they most feared; and one singularly dedicated to the CFC’s downfall.

The CFC’s campaign to take Fountain’s moons has stalled. Instead of annexing a rich income stream next door, CFC’s leadership is faced with a well armed and well led enemy on their own doorstep. As diplomatic means deliver diminishing returns, CFC will have to win the day by force of arms if they are to avoid invasion and the subsequent dog-piling it will bring. CFC’s supercapitals will have to go into harm’s way or go home.

– Mord Fiddle

About the Author: Mord Fiddle’s writings are an invitation to high tea in a world of rave parties. His readers gather at http://fiddlersedge.blogspot.com/ for thoughtful analysis, daring prose, deep insights, and Mord’s tendency to use words not writ nor spoken conversationally since Middle English went out of fashion.

34 Comments

  1. Jesus Christ

    Reguarding subcap fights n3 doesnt seem thats going do win. Barely get 200 in fleet.Goons ping for 500. Capital wise very reluctant cause of tidi. 1 fight takes 6/7 hours. Not everyone has that kind of time.

    July 8, 2013 at 8:09 am Reply
    1. o/

      I agree with our lord and savior; PL/N3/Test not only can’t hold the field with subcaps they are getting pushed off with ease. I don’t think we’ll see PL/N3/Test caps/supers on field with 500+ goon megas with Fuckyou fleets thrown in as well, they would butchered by the meat grinder. July alone goons have killed almost 1k BS while only losing ~120 not to mention killing 48 carriers and 23 dreads.

      July 8, 2013 at 8:36 am Reply
      1. Jesus Christ

        I am on those domi fleets and gila fleets. I do believe domi fleets are extremelly awsome and good. Just cant stand 5:1 odds. But unfortunatly we have a massive handicap. For example whe we lost 4 carriers yesterday half our drones didnt even trigger…… just check the kills. due to lagging and tidi.

        July 8, 2013 at 12:47 pm Reply
  2. Fartolio

    And this new enemy is….Test? The others were all the time there. We might play 2 different games, or play on different servers, but Test pretty hit the brake already. Btw, they already did deploy capitals agressively. …this is not a post meant to be put up 2 weeks ago? You shure?

    July 8, 2013 at 8:24 am Reply
  3. impartial opinion

    Capitals are becoming a common site on the laggy battlegrounds of Fountain. The sheer numbers that CFC can field are just incredible, and the only way that we can beat that is to throw Dreads with Triage support or Slowcats into the mix. This has been seen on several occasions.
    I dont think its fair to say neither side were willing to escalate in Z9PP. It has become clear in the days after the fight that N3 were about to deploy around 200 Slowcats into the field which would have forced the CFC to either escalate or abandon the fight. Escalation by the CFC would surely have spelt disaster as the combined Super and Titan force of N3, PL and TEST would be waaay to much for the CFC to counter.
    The node went down less than 30 minutes into the actual battle (Eve time). This prevented escalation.
    Since then N3 have been a bit shy on numbers. They may still have a number of guys still logged off in Z9PP or some may have been burned out by the latest slog fest.
    Who knows.

    July 8, 2013 at 8:35 am Reply
    1. Mord Fiddle

      I did not say that the catalyst for more caps was laggy battlegrounds.

      July 8, 2013 at 12:05 pm Reply
    2. Rholak

      Wait N3 was about to jump 200 slow cat into a fight where they would have been bubbled and blaped by 1500 mega’s? idk what fights you been too, but slowcats alone vs 1000+BS fleets = dead slowcats….

      If the server didn’t crash and N3 was dumb enough to jump in 200 slow cats by themselves, the cfc would have sent you a thank you letter for the 200+ carrier killmails.

      July 16, 2013 at 9:03 am Reply
  4. NoMad Plz

    haven’t you heard .. TEST is broke m8.. They asking there members for isk..

    https://soundcloud.com/deaelunae/test-sota-7-7-thanks-all-1

    July 8, 2013 at 8:38 am Reply
  5. Forest Troll

    “…CFC’s leadership is faced with a well armed and well led enemy on their own doorstep.” Where did you get this idea from? The past few days events puts this statement into question.

    July 8, 2013 at 8:50 am Reply
  6. Guest

    I would say this article is well written, good usage of the language.

    However, from being a line-member i don’t really feel this way. I mean, an entity singularly focused on destroying the CFC? Last time i checked, at least half of Test n friends are here to have gudfights~. But sure, they might feel like they want to do some damage to the CFC, but take it all the way? Don’t think so buddy.

    And thats not all of it, this article is filled with arguments which simply are not true or have allready changed a certain degree, to where they are very arguable. If you just look at the numbers, until last week, the Test n friends team was able to put in enough to fight the CFC effectively and actually won i’d say most of the fights decisivly, sure it was with triage support, but they could cope. This is no longer the case.

    It just feels to me this article is coming from someone not invested/attending the war. Not saying there is alot of spin or something, you make it look like you’re unbiased (gj), but like i said, there are to many arguments or statements simply wrong or too arguable to write them down in this manner (IMO)

    July 8, 2013 at 9:24 am Reply
    1. Forest Troll

      Yeah this is a good comment on the article. Mord Fiddle, don’t just say stuff, dig deeper dude. That way your writing skills SUPPORTS GOOD CONTENT.

      July 8, 2013 at 9:42 am Reply
  7. briancnelson

    They have been bringing caps pretty aggressively. That didn’t work out so very well for them. Note the 40 + cap losses this weekend.

    July 8, 2013 at 9:26 am Reply
    1. Baki

      You ever heard of the rule no insurance no reimbursement? Fully insured capitals cost 500mil to reimburse each it is nowhere near as expensive to lose regular caps as you’d like to believe. Mistakes have been made and it became apparent that caps are downright useless in fights that go into 10% tidi. Problems such as Drones stopping to work and dread gunz stooping to do damage are problems that CCP needs to address.

      July 8, 2013 at 11:52 am Reply
      1. Tim

        Which is a great rule. Every cap you don’t reimburse in one less on the field. And combine the cap losses with the subcap losses and TEST must be looking even worse in the finance department. PL are throwing away ultra rare super carriers and a host of regular supercap and titan boats, so they are goign to be a bit more risk averse too. I feel a CFC victory looming ever closer.

        July 8, 2013 at 3:19 pm Reply
    2. Mord Fiddle

      There’s always a risk in putting big ships at risk to bring out the targets you want. So far CFC’s been successful in making the Test/PL/N3 fleets pay for deploying caps without bringing caps of their own. As I wrote above, the Allies would do well to take the fight out of Fountain and into CFC space: make like the target is is Fountain and get the CFC subcap fleets to bridge/commit to one location and then drop the hammer elsewhere – preferably targets of value in CFC space. It would take coordination, but it’s not beyond the ability of the PL FCs. Just bashing away at one another in eastern Fountain is playing CFC’s game.

      July 8, 2013 at 6:49 pm Reply
  8. alotofletters

    The wall of text totally detached from the current events. Thank you for the sperg.

    July 8, 2013 at 9:46 am Reply
  9. rah

    All that Z9PP showed is that CFC can fare well against capitals fielding subcaps. TEST & co lost a LOT of capitals and were destined to lose more. Thankfully they were saved by the remap. If however you think the situation is going to make them more eager to field caps, you are dead wrong.
    Even PL were considering this a total cap lost for TEST (pre crash) and were considering an all or nothing drop to either win or lose the war in that one hit. That’s not the kind of behavior you see from a group that is likely to continue fielding caps.
    After this weekends losses, if TEST & co are still fielding caps to a high degree they they are either crazy or stupid.

    July 8, 2013 at 10:19 am Reply
  10. Ahinu

    I am not an expert. But after the battles of Z9 and the bloodbath of 3W….i told you Mord one thing. Deploy capitals ships without holding subcapital dominance in grid is a risk movement. 560 MEGAS on GRID are a threat even for archons spiding repping and so.

    Look with perspective, 560 megas holding grid. celestis everywhere and you buble the hostile fleet, then proceed to jump sniping Dreads…not a joke.

    It seems to me CFC dont need to Put Capital fleets at risk as much as you want to claim. They are doing pretty well.

    Lets just wait to see whats happend next. Will Z9 and 3W affect PL/N3/NC Morale and will to deploy Capitals fleet or not?.

    Only time….

    July 8, 2013 at 10:37 am Reply
  11. yoghi

    “we only got saved because the server went down”

    https://soundcloud.com/deaelunae/test-sota-7-7-thanks-all-1

    this article is pretty out of touch with whats really happening.

    if i listen to this soundcloud CFC has the momentum right now and its increasing.

    it actually sounds like “thank you for all your effort, it was all in vain”

    July 8, 2013 at 10:40 am Reply
    1. Turd

      Sounds like TEST is emotionally incapable of hiding the shock at how badly this is going for them. I am sure they are on their knees praying or doing something (slob the knob) in the great hope that their allies won’t leave them alone on the field…..like TEST appears to do to those very same allies. “Please don’t stop logging in….please!…..or we will lose!” Just sad. Just sad and pathetic. This guy is no leader, he is the guy I hire to clean my toilets. “Shit beat out of us” is “Amazing fun” and yea… he doesn’t even believe his own load of chud. The rank and file should kick these guys out and start over. They MIGHT have a chance then but right now with this leadership…singing idiots and all, …..well anyone that listens to this has to wonder who in this group has any idea how truly out of touch they are. Who would be proud to be part of this crap? This has to be a joke…some spoof. If its real then this war is a joke and anyone that fights under TEST leadership has no honor as men. Skirts one and all. A bunch of Nancys. Just WOW!

      July 8, 2013 at 11:40 am Reply
  12. Dikreathz

    Yes bait hmmm i want to be bait :)

    July 8, 2013 at 10:46 am Reply
  13. Turd

    TEST is getting mauled all over Fountain….MAULED! I mean, they can’t even muster a good fight. Black Legion is the only group making waves that isn’t in the CFC union. TEST and their allies fly in, kill a few, then the CFC sends out a few fleets and TEST limps off with a lot less ships in tow. Honestly, it looks like TEST just has fail FCs, poor leadership, and they certainly aren’t putting up a fight to speak of. Their mascot is a dinosaur, something that people have been saying will define their existence… extinction….in a ball of Goonswarm fire from the heavens.

    That may be but I see it differently. Birds are related to dinosaurs and right now the TEST alliance looks like a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off. They flail and run around squawking having no direction or goal. It is just an expenditure of frustrated energy that makes no sense. When your rank and file start to figure out that you are a sinking ship because the leadership just can’t compare with the CFC leadership, the smart ones will be looking for other corps or other games to play. Smart gamers don’t let poor leadership drag them down. When this war is over two things will remain true… TEST will probably still be living in low sec and TEST allies will still be three shades of grey matter above the TEST leadership.

    Black Legion dumped a group snot on the PL gank squad. Your allies keep saving your candy asses so why haven’t you been able to save or even help any of them? Oh wait…got my answer….that stupid TEST chicken with its head cut off just ran by again. I think I saw a Fweddit rooster running behind it with a meat cleaver and a grin. THAT is some funny chit mon! cluck cluck cluck

    July 8, 2013 at 11:11 am Reply
    1. bigbonedbobby

      this war has alot of older players in it,it looks like cfc has the momentum right now.

      but
      your somewhat retarded if you think everyone is gonna say”shit is this
      what war is? shit lets pack up and go home this to grim”.

      July 8, 2013 at 11:26 am Reply
      1. Fartolio

        Lol, i just hope that everybody stays right where they are. And fight. But we might see the opposite, and this really soon. Some already did hit the brake and evacuated to lowsex.

        July 8, 2013 at 11:58 am Reply
    2. Mord Fiddle

      Lol – Ministry of Love, much?

      Seriously, though, time will tell. The sudden appearance of capital ships on the field in numbers for final timers is notable. It is convenient if you have a CFC bias to blame the losses on bad Test FCing, but I that would be uncharacteristic of Pandemic Legion who, I assume, are heavily engaged in cap deployment strategy, decisions and leadership.

      The tide of battle has swung back and forth in this campaign and I expect it will again – more than once. Each side has already had more than one turn clamoring that victory is at hand and that the enemy is on the run. Nobody’s been right so far.

      July 8, 2013 at 12:02 pm Reply
    3. war anyone?

      What have you really achieved in the last two weeks?
      1. dropped s2nc sov only to have it reclaimed over night.
      2. got Shadoo and a large amount of PL’s titan/super pilots to resub
      3. then smugged about PL’s Revenant loss at the hands of your mercenaries.

      Recent Examples of PL’s forgiveness:
      1. -A-‘s new motto, “God forgives, PL destroyed our alliance, recruited our corps, and took our FCs.”
      2. http://evemaps.dotlan.net/alliance/Deadzoned

      I feel like you didn’t read this article at all because what you’re doin’ here is exactly what Mord was talking about. The sov drop for s2nc just renewed our conviction. I don’t see how smugging over PL losses at the hands of the mercenary coalition you paid off will benefit you cluster fuckers in the future.

      BL is now CFC for the purposes of this conflict at least. They consistently fight in system with goon fleets, avoiding conflict with them while fighting N3 PL Test.

      July 8, 2013 at 6:41 pm Reply
  14. Angel of Mordus' Legion

    The key to successfully bring down an end to CFC’s campaign for take over Fountain is PURE BLIND. Attack North/South CFC JB network – and Fountain campaign is over. No more reinforcements south, and CFC assets MUST be divested to defend Pure Blind.

    FA’s being most loyal worthless Goonie pet cannot keep in check Pure Blind nor Fade for that matter without CFC help. They deployed entire alliance to new station in 3V8 to “destroy” Mordus Angels. Not that they failed, but failed miserably to point Zagdul quit leadership – failed with 80% efficiency in Mordus Angels favor. They had to call Goonies parents top help them with any structure defense opps.

    Venal has the moons, but Pure Blind has the CFC infrastructure that keeps the CFC together!

    July 8, 2013 at 12:59 pm Reply
    1. Ahinu

      Update me. So you are tellilng me Mordus are destroying FA sov and getting it back if goons didnt help FA?. Your 620 man alliance can really do that?. Because as far as i know, FA cant “destroy” you…due to you not be the owner of nothing.

      Or did i get you wrong?. Just asking.

      July 8, 2013 at 1:24 pm Reply
      1. Fartolio

        Lol, MOA

        July 8, 2013 at 1:54 pm Reply
    2. Bittervet.net

      Whats stoping MOA N’capping the Jump bridges oh that’s right you don’t do anything with out Gen eve….

      July 8, 2013 at 2:55 pm Reply
    3. Turd

      God I hope they listen to your tripe and actually do that. Catching a few big fleets deep in CFC territory with the reserves would be yet another big headliner. Face it, without competent FC’s they couldn’t even put together a fail plan like the one you suggest….god that would be so funny. Wait, maybe you are part of the TEST leadership. cluck cluck cluck! ahahahaha As Bob Barker said….”Come on Down….!”

      July 8, 2013 at 4:46 pm Reply
  15. Someotherdude

    Congrats Goons! You managed to blob and win… now do it for the next two or three months. TEST has been awful for a very long time, since the beginning actually. Those pesky facts though get in the way as Goons saw an opportunity and took it after losing most of the ground they gained over the past 3 weeks. R64’s are useless unless you can start production and right now there’s precious little for Goons. We’ve heard TEST failcascade, that they’re broke, that they’re newbs, pubbies, w/e (__insert name here__) but what the OP fails to understand is TEST gives no fucks about it. The reddit culture is that it’s a game, and if they lose everything in a giant ball of fire, as long as it was fun it’s okay, they’ll move to Aridia and die in balls of fire while shooting Goons next year, the year after in rifters, etc., unless of course mittens wants a truce and wants to pay them off. ;3 It’s hard to understand that mentality – PL didn’t understand it, NC. didn’t get it initially, Tribe had less of a hard time since they were/are bad or worse. If TEST lost all the caps and the node fuckup didn’t happen, they’d still do the same thing. While the CFC spin machine has a new life that they won a battle is encouraging, but not impressive. Let’s hope the Goons drop caps more often and make it interesting.

    July 8, 2013 at 5:43 pm Reply
    1. testtearsbesttears

      Morning special delicious…

      July 8, 2013 at 6:28 pm Reply
  16. Bunkum

    Mord – do you know anything at all about the current conflict? I ge tthe impression you are watching from afar and making an analysis without understanding any of the undercurrents.

    You mention that CFC have created an “extinction level threat” yet at least a month if not 2x months before hand Montoliio was calling for an invasion of the CFC and were actively seeking allies to assist.

    Secondly, you refer to the use of bait capital fleets but you utterly ignore the effect that attrition plays on these, how many times can 10-20 capitals be replaced in time to participate as part of the next bait fleet? I’m not getting into the “test is broke” argument but the simple logistics of churning out 60+ caps a week (whcih is the TEST cap losses for the last week). These are not “bait cap fleets” being lost ,they are members assets – and they do not exist in an infite supply.

    Please can you elaborate how the node crash in fact imperiled the TEST/N3/PL cap fleet – you make that statement like you have some kind of special understanding then go on to leave it hanging. Without a doubt the node crash saved those caps – PL have said this, TEST have said this, pretty much everyone agrees on this except an ill-informed blog writer attempting to fake some kind of insight.

    You also have implied that the goons need to use thier supercap fleet – yet both sides are limiting their supercap deployment at the moment – and a supercap fleet that cannot be supported is a dead fleet. If goons are able to maintain subcap superiority then no, they will not have to bring out their own supercap fleet, they can break their enemies will to fight (as they typically do vs supercap heavy alliances) before mopping up afterwards.

    July 9, 2013 at 1:08 pm Reply

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