We’re in a period of the Fountain War where no one’s really making a push “across the river.” Each side seems to have stabilized and seems content with burning the other’s structures. The longer the war goes on the more unstable each side can become. Grunts get burnt out as does the leadership and logistics of each side. Content is great and I don’t believe that anyone playing Eve, if they truly enjoy the pvp aspect (be it small gang skirmishes or massive F1+anchor mega battles) will get burnt out. However not every single person that logs on is a die hard all in for the pvp type. People are people and will always have their personal interests in mind first, sooner or later. Within this context (and others) it is always interesting for me to consider what each side could, and perhaps, should do to change the tide of the war.

I’ve written before concerning the CFC’s strengths such as their unity, their unrivaled logistics, their cult of personality around Mittani as well as their highly developed organization. Hate them all you want, for their ganking and scamming, the fact of the matter is that as a whole they ARE good at Eve. When most people concern themselves about personal pvp prowess, their ship fittings, their personal image and killboard, the CFC concerns about organizing and maintaining a whole machine. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Their largest weakness is the unmatched hatred they have managed to attract. Now in the older days that didn’t much matter when you were the unquestionable ruler of the North, and Mittani was Tech Pope second to none with friendly entities in the west (TEST) and meager opponents in the east. Entities like AAA, Nulli, Brick, NCdot, Black Legion or even PL could not hope to challenge them. Not only was the CFC a well oiled machine, but they had the entirety of TEST in their pocket, albeit in an older evolutionary stage that the average Goon had already passed through, none the less numerous and eager. When this changed, being hated all of the sudden mattered as this is the most important thing to avoid be it Eve or in real life. Being the best, being right, being the smartest, most beautiful most capable does not matter if you are hated. Emotion more often than not trumps reason.

If you are hated you can wait for those who hate you to forgive you, Since such humility and piety seems to evade both the CFC and their haters and most of humanity the next best thing for the CFC to do is make allies among those who don’t hate them. This may already be in the works for all I know but I see three main entities that are potential allies: The Russians in the east such as Solar and Red Alliance, the Dinner Squad Coalition and the Stain “Russians” who are actually comprised of several East European nationalities as well.

The “Eastern Russians” such as Solar and RA have been rumored to have warmed up relations somewhat and while Solar has been messing around with some structures, N3 members such as WHYSO are quick to reverse any gains. In the end Solar and friends are more of a minor annoyance for the time being. The recent Nulli sov drop supposedly the works of someone in the “Eastern Russian” camp was poorly coordinated but could have been the next big “Butter Fly Effect” type scenario of Eve. Perhaps this is already in the works but the CFC would be wise to coordinate better. At the same time this may not be the CFC’s fault. While Russians seem impossible to kill off due to the nationalist element their alliances bring in, they also seem somewhat unreliable. The old saying “Russia is never as strong or as weak as they seem” comes to mind.

Concerning the other two entities, The Dinner Squad and the “Stain Russians,” as long as these two entities are at odds, it works in TEST’s favor. If the CFC were to convince them that they have more to gain in working together at the expense of TEST and especially Tribal.Hegemony over Stain, Period Basis and Delve is not a difficult scenario to pitch for the “Stain Russians.” Init and Unclaimed have enough of their own sov and for a bit of isk, would surely aim their guns at Fountain rather than Stain, if the Mittani and his diplomats where capable enough to convince them.

Such a scenario would not be difficult to be pulled off and would create the double front against TEST and allies that would work in the CFC’s favor considering their long term strategy. But once TEST is vanquished, how exactly do you keep such a large entity from coming back up elsewhere? This is where the final nail in the coffin is presented in the form of Fweddit. Stemming from the same internet community as TEST, once they were out of the way and Fweddit put in place, much of the membership would most likely simply transfer over. Rather than topple TEST leadership like the Mittani managed to do with Montolio, he would simply pull the membership rug out from under them and have them replaced with a friendly entity that’s much more easily manageable.

All of this is indeed very possible knowing what the different parties value especially if TEST doesn’t make this personal for their allies. What that means is that TEST needs to make Fountain and the resources it holds, something important for N3 and PL if they have not done so already. As written before, TEST will lose moons and sov regardless how this war goes. The difference is will they invest it in their allies and make this their own fight, or will they lose it all to the CFC.

The trick in handing out resources though is to find a perfect balance. Too close to the front line and if anything is lost to the CFC the motivation will turn into frustration. Too far back and TEST’s allies are open to deal from the other side. They need to be just close enough to the front that they will be in some danger of CFC attacks but far back enough to allow TEST’s allies to become accommodated to having that income.

What would really tip TEST over the edge to have an advantage would be, along with frustrating any of the attempts mentioned above, to get Black Legion/Retirement/Pizza striking back up north. If the CFC found it worth enough money to pay them off, their attacks, in conjunction with their Fountain Invasion, were of course effective.

The road map to TEST’s victory is much more simple in that manner but more difficult to attain. The CFC’s more complicated but at the same time they are set up better to pull off the meta. Short term the CFC’s objective is to take Fountain’s moons. Some may say TEST have it easier as all they need to do is hold the CFC off from Fountain to fulfill their objective. This is true short term, but if the CFC is not only held off, but destroyed, they will simply come back when TEST’s allies are busy elsewhere.

The dynamics between the Goons and their allies and TEST and theirs are thus: The Goon’s allies/coalition members are much more united, yet also much more dependent on the Goons. We need only look back to the failures of LAWN in Provi or FA/RZR in the east. TEST’s allies however are capable individual entities. This however doesn’t necessarily prove to be a strength for TEST. They have their own agendas. In this instance it may prove an advantage to the CFC that their allies are so dependent on them. Both sides should seek to acquire their advantages with those advantages and disadvantages in mind. Only the future will tell which one succeeds at their task.

– Seraph IX Basarab

60 Comments

  1. goonie

    first

    July 7, 2013 at 6:10 am Reply
    1. nope

      NOPE

      July 7, 2013 at 6:45 am Reply
  2. Dumbledore

    It looks like the stalemate was already broken. If CFC can continue their success with gathering enough players to create soul-crushing tidi, they will take whatever they want to take. I tip my wizard hat to them should that happen. (But I’m not sure how long will they be able to amass forces of that size.)

    July 7, 2013 at 6:23 am Reply
    1. wow

      it is a holiday weekend, test/n3/pl are out having fun while cfc grind on shit all will return to normal shit goons

      July 7, 2013 at 6:45 am Reply
      1. Na

        You hope.

        July 7, 2013 at 9:48 am Reply
    2. billy goats

      All test + friends needs to do to win is hold,they dont need to advance just hold.
      Do it long enough and CFC will become unstable.
      But at the moment CFC has gained some momentum.

      July 7, 2013 at 12:29 pm Reply
    3. No fun allowed

      CFC sheep will show up and do as they are told. This will not change.

      July 7, 2013 at 3:52 pm Reply
      1. Darth Kilth

        On the otherside of the coin it seems the TEST sheeps are forming up less and less making their dependence on N3 and PL all the more apparent.

        July 8, 2013 at 12:00 am Reply
  3. asdga

    After the last few battles if test and friends set there timers around the times that the cfc puts together there massive 1400-1600 man fleets n3 and test are going to be in big trouble. Without the second front that bl/401k provided test and friends seem unable to come close to the numbers that the cfc can field.

    All of the cfc alliances seem to be pretty active looking at the last 2 large battles. I also did not realize how much larger the cfc was in comparison to n3 http://raynor.cl/eve/coalition.php

    there is no question that n3+friends will burnout much quicker under a full siege, because the workload can not be split as easily.

    From an outside view looking in it would appear that n3+test will need a much higher percentage of participation per alliance or more alliances inside its coalition. The 4th largest alliance inside the CFC is larger then the largest alliance inside N3.

    Delve, Querious and stain have a large amount of r64’s that the cfc will most likely take after fountain falls.

    It would be silly for anybody in those regions to help the cfc. NC owns the moons in Querious which is probably why they don’t want Fountain to fall. The current owners would not benefit from helping the cfc as they will most likely be evicted later.

    July 7, 2013 at 6:48 am Reply
    1. Coueris Bill

      Just curious, why do we count Goon PETs as part of the numbers against N3 but we don’t count N3 and PL PETs against the Goons?
      Seems if we did it’s all pretty even. I’ve heard here countless times how both parties are PETS what’s the difference?

      July 7, 2013 at 3:18 pm Reply
  4. DrkyDrky

    The morale is rather low for TEST/N3 after running away instead of facing CFC’s baltec fleet directly. It’s not losing ships that caused their morale to crash, but the cowardly act of running away.

    Especially for the ‘elitist’ forces in N3. They were probably embarrassed and disappointed that they had to run away with their tail between their legs against ‘noobs’.

    You so called ‘elites’ need to get some big balls.

    July 7, 2013 at 6:53 am Reply
    1. slo

      let’s see lets not whipe your fleet against a big ass blob. So how about stfu.

      July 7, 2013 at 6:58 am Reply
      1. duerp

        Side A cries when side B has greater numbers and side B cries when side A has greater numbers.

        Don’t be a faggot.

        July 7, 2013 at 7:05 am Reply
      2. Fartolio

        Unless you in a big ass fleet and the lower numbered enemies are the cowards, isn’t it? Funny that real old players can’t get over this level. So how about being unable to grow some b*lls after so many years of Eve?

        July 7, 2013 at 7:29 am Reply
        1. waaa?

          English please

          July 7, 2013 at 7:55 am Reply
    2. Barkaway

      Get some balls, Goons spent the fiorst 3 weeks blueballing and docking on station…. -.-

      July 7, 2013 at 2:17 pm Reply
    3. My Little Goonie

      Said no one in Test/N3 ever. Fly little bee, fly away. Im sure big queen Mittani has RMT, I mean your best interests at heart.

      July 7, 2013 at 3:19 pm Reply
    4. Derp

      Easy for a retard to say when they had 500 Mega alone to N3/test etcs 600 combined.
      Another cfc special needs donkey!

      July 7, 2013 at 4:50 pm Reply
  5. duerp

    “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”

    Isn’t the sum of its parts the whole?

    July 7, 2013 at 7:03 am Reply
    1. Seraph IX Basarab
      July 7, 2013 at 7:25 am Reply
      1. duerp

        Great, a Wikipedia link. Let me just go ahead and trust that source and use it as a reference in my next peer-review.

        It’s a pretty fucking terrible phrase. You could have just let the paragraph off at the previous sentence. That makes more sense in context than adding on some line soaked with tautology in an attempt to make yourself sound smart. Plus it would have saved you the trouble of linking a Wikipedia page to justify it.

        July 7, 2013 at 10:18 am Reply
        1. Rol

          Better to read wikipedia than stay ignorant. Human perception isn’t mathematical. So yeah, the whole is bigger than the sum of their parts. And if you read that article, i’m fairly certain you’ll see a few books in which to base your next peer-review something.

          July 7, 2013 at 11:41 am Reply
        2. shayneo

          Autism is a hell of a drug, “derp”.

          July 7, 2013 at 1:26 pm Reply
        3. Seraph IX Basarab

          duerp i’m not sure if the phrase is really the issue you are having. If it were just that you would have addressed me differently. Obviously since you are bothered by something else, perhaps something more personal, you are only shifting your issue with me on something else. Wikipedia isn’t the Torah, Bible or Quran. I understand that. But it can provide some decent insight on some concepts and works better than referring you Goethe and Kant. That’d be kind of pointlessly highbrow for a pretend video game news website. If you want to go that route we can.

          So the basic concept introduced in that line that I wrote is synergy. What two individuals can produce together amounts to more than what two individuals can produce separately. Fit that within the context of the article and it should make sense. If you want to be a mature being and take it as that good, i’m genuinely happy for you. If not, well I’m guessing you’d be the only one that would be impressed.

          Take care.

          July 7, 2013 at 5:39 pm Reply
        4. Devore

          “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts” is a very common phrase. It is a concise way to describe a popular concept, without resorting to using esoteric words no one ever uses in conversation. Sorry if you have not heard it before, but there is no need to sperge over it. Accept your failure, get on with your life.

          July 7, 2013 at 11:41 pm Reply
    2. Fiddle

      Yeah u are ‘right’, but the saying implies that ‘the whole’ is ‘more’ than the simple summation of the individual components.

      “The principle maintains that the human eye sees objects in their entirety before perceiving their individual parts, suggesting the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. “

      July 7, 2013 at 10:20 am Reply
  6. sanchesco

    Comparing test to cfc is like comparing a theme park ride to the government

    July 7, 2013 at 7:11 am Reply
  7. EveryThings

    Nice read!
    Though I think you’re not fully realizing the momentum that CFC have gathered in the last few days and battles.
    Morale is extremely high in CFC, scarily high. There are talks of crushing more than just TEST when all is said and done. This kind of talks of continuing the war further than planned is exactly what will decide the war. I’ve enever seen my Goon friends with this kind of high morale before.

    July 7, 2013 at 7:41 am Reply
    1. Sigh

      No goons are always retarded… Win 1 battle with mass blob odds and its smack… Win 2-3 battles and its talk of war won, we will take eve etc etc.
      Same old special needs shit, just another day 😉

      July 7, 2013 at 4:47 pm Reply
      1. Darth Kilth

        Oh look, replace Goons with TEST in this post, place it on some articles 2/3 weeks ago and it would still be relevant!

        July 7, 2013 at 11:59 pm Reply
  8. DrkyDrky

    The real thing that N3/PL may be concerned is the fact that CFC’s combat efficiency had significantly improved ever since the Tribute war.

    They’re no longer dumb noobs who gets massacred by the same method over & over again. Remember 100 dotbros zealots easily wiping off 250+ drakes? The worst part was that CFC threw in more drakes lol. Well, they’ve seemed to have learned a lot from their mistakes during the Tribute war.

    Nowadays, It wouldn’t be crazy to say that certain elite segments of CFC has superior skills & tactics compared to alliances like NC. & PL…

    July 7, 2013 at 8:38 am Reply
    1. Na

      Agree, with your comments, what everybody fails to neglect, CFC can keep this up for a very very long time.

      N3/PL are playing in someone else’s backyard, and haven’t got repair everything unlike testies, who incidentally lose a few assets here and there (poses) to GodS/GBang Team as well as Pizza, never mind testies carrier fodder.

      July 7, 2013 at 9:29 am Reply
    2. DrkyDrky

      A 50men GSF fleet just massacred a 80men 401k fleet (who also had capitals).

      2 bill isk damage vs. 38+ bill isk damage

      Eliteswarm in the works it seems. I also think this is the first time for gewns to defeat a larger ‘elite’ entity while being outnumbered & outgunned in a large battle.

      July 7, 2013 at 8:07 pm Reply
  9. NA

    BL/Pizza mentality is pvp, they don’t careless about who wins between CFC or Test/N3/PL.

    Pizzaco will shoot CFC up North once this campaign is over, so why create a another front that 401K (BBC :() job isn’t it.

    BL have been on contract, so all depends if CFC, require the same status quo and and pay to keep BL down South.

    July 7, 2013 at 9:21 am Reply
  10. I just do not know

    Very good article, one thing you have wrong is that Initiative do not like the Goons, and they really like going after -A-, so that is something you need to keep in mind.

    July 7, 2013 at 10:37 am Reply
  11. dude

    CFC has had 1 good weekend were they didn’t blueball and run and all the sudden they are talking about crushing more then just test .. lol .. lets calm down a bit. the numbers can quickly change again.

    July 7, 2013 at 12:05 pm Reply
    1. Old Git

      Wasnt 1 good weekend my friend it was a 6 day rape of test and friends where a fuck ton of caps died and over 800 BS of test and co

      July 7, 2013 at 4:45 pm Reply
      1. Yawn

        And 3-4 weeks of cfc getting du led before (slow clap)

        July 7, 2013 at 4:53 pm Reply
        1. Yawn

          Dunked*

          July 7, 2013 at 4:54 pm Reply
          1. Darth Kilth

            Hmmm, I see no significant losses for the CFC were they truely got dunked outside of the start of the war with those shitty caracal/Tengy/TFI fleets.
            Yeah the lost some systems they were given as a surprise but nobody ever expected them to hold anyway (except the people desperately looking for great losses for the CFC.)
            Meanwhile they are burning their way across fountain with not much action being done to stop them, TEST/N3 rep some stuff, replace others but can’t really do anything about it.

            The CFC is not taking swats of ground and visibly advancing, but they are causing TEST no small amount of grief, nor have they lost any more of the SOV they gained or lost any significant battles.

            Were is the CFC getting Dunked? Outside of anonymous comments here, on TheMittani or Reddit I mean.

            July 7, 2013 at 11:58 pm
          2. anonymous

            33 dread losses and battleship welps 2 weeks ago?

            July 8, 2013 at 12:30 am
  12. Dene

    In the end this all begins and ends with Test. If Test can not put at least 75-80% of Goon numbers on the field in effective counters to whatever CFC is fielding (At the moment Megas) the war is lost. Love or Hate Goons they have succeeded at managing a unified coalition that has had time to work together and make mistakes together.

    They are in full fleets, while the Test coalition comes in smaller groups. What does this mean break the smaller fleets effective logistics or DPS and they no longer matter during the fight, because their broadcast targets are not the same. Tidi and Goons reinforcing lost ships will win every time.

    More cooperation is needed between Test+Others (combined effective fleets) and either Test needs to put out people or the friends need to recruit. Both of these items are significant challenges.

    July 7, 2013 at 12:27 pm Reply
  13. Nullibro

    I hate to be biased and will say it how I think it is happening. To me, it seems that the “disband” incident and the CCP remap mistake has taken its toll. We seem to have lost the momentum in participation while`s CFC`s has risen. If we cannot pull the numbers, the Fountain war is lost for us N3/Test guys. Period!

    Now can we turn things around, yes we can. But we gona need to get our act together and fast!
    Sorry to be honest, but its not my way to tell bullshit.

    July 7, 2013 at 2:16 pm Reply
    1. Ganicus

      I’ve been in too many wars in eve, and if one week of getting blob bed to fuck by cfc breaks your coalition then just disband and give up now.

      I however have seen already cfc getting dunked Dailey and only this week have they had success.
      If N3 test have the heart that dotbros had shown in tribute war against this very same blob of Persians then I have no doubt that cfc will be pushed out of fountain.
      There’s not going to be an easy path were everything is success, cfc will blob you and get the upper hand when they can, there’s many things you could do to counter there blob, going from a more affective second front, to disrupting there JB network so they cannot affectively blob with mass odds, as let’s face it cfc is only successful when they have mass odds in their favour, so that’s the key here, break them up, hurt them where it counts.

      But yes test and every one involved needs to get there ass in fleet participate and not be ratting faggot shits losing carriers to gang bang team and pizza lol.

      July 7, 2013 at 4:44 pm Reply
      1. old timer

        pizza openend a second front in period basis tonight. i mean sovs involved.

        July 8, 2013 at 3:29 am Reply
    2. Derrrrrr

      The remap was in test favor. You make no sense.

      July 7, 2013 at 5:40 pm Reply
      1. Nullibro

        No one can tell how the fight would have ended. Test cap ships were being slaughtered however, N3 was about to drop in more ships on the field. I just look at the results of the fight after it was over. Lots of Test/N3 cap and BS dead. A lot of Test/N3 pilots logged off in a very dangerous area. A significant morale boost for CFC.

        July 7, 2013 at 8:28 pm Reply
        1. ---

          Test carriers were being killed before reps could land, they did manage to hold reps if we took too long to kill them. An adition of more caps at that point would just have ment more kills for the cfc.

          July 8, 2013 at 8:42 am Reply
  14. Old Git

    This was actually a very good read and not the usually eve 24 shit i am used to reading

    TY sir and a +1 to u

    July 7, 2013 at 4:44 pm Reply
    1. Voodoo

      Certainly helps when the writer is focused more on analyzing and less on speculation.

      July 9, 2013 at 6:22 pm Reply
  15. old timer

    “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”

    i think this is all what CFC is about.

    “Their largest weakness is the unmatched hatred they have managed to attract”

    guess what , we are turning this into a strenght as well , like us againt the universe , we can fuck anybody if we like , and such…

    the CFC have killed about 1000 BS in one week , and is still able to field 1300 pilots on a rage ping like yesterday… we dont need no allies really… at least for this war.

    then , there is one thing i would like to see : the death of PL. there we might need some allies.. or not.

    any one else here would like to see PL dead ?

    July 7, 2013 at 8:18 pm Reply
    1. Time To Die

      Yes, but let’s get rid of you first.

      July 7, 2013 at 9:25 pm Reply
    2. Crapfkingcoalition

      Best thing for eve would be death of cfc, make it happen Son… We right behind you!

      July 7, 2013 at 9:26 pm Reply
      1. old timer

        hehe , nice try ^^

        but really , think about it , who is the biggest blue donnut now , from geminate to foutain… and who is behind it.
        who’s got more than 400 systems rented…
        who did built the biggest coalition ever and then dropped it like a used condom…

        not that i really care , but you should think about it.

        July 7, 2013 at 11:17 pm Reply
        1. Fuckcfc

          N3/PL rent for income to. Enifit their members and to benifit renters who want to get into null also.
          Cfc minipulated by the few leadership that actual matter gains nothing further to what most other alliances can offer in null, srp/ratting space etc, but cfc are meat grinder for the chosen fews rmt income to line their pockets. A specific mittens that rarely logged in unless cfc morale is at a low.

          Think about that… Death to cfc better giving newer legs more room to run than having this over used carcass of cancer more time to minipulated for self gain!

          July 7, 2013 at 11:44 pm Reply
  16. PewPew

    Its even right now? Test and Pets can’t even field fleets now due to either broken moral or lack of ships left available in staging systems. My corp is praying that you guys don’t fold this week, we are really enjoying this war

    July 7, 2013 at 11:04 pm Reply
  17. TEST/PL_IS_SHT

    PL and TEST, Init etc. dead soon

    Come to better future to us ! Finish Evil Empire TEST/PL !!!

    July 8, 2013 at 12:31 am Reply
  18. Imigo

    “Let them hate us, so long as they fear us.”

    July 8, 2013 at 2:18 am Reply
  19. old timer

    omg , BL killed 7 PL MS … and a revenant… while they were fighting CFC.

    July 8, 2013 at 3:26 am Reply
  20. Provi Miner

    Well Test is fighting for its life (so thats where they stand), N3 has decided to be in vfk by end of the month (won’t make it but sums up their point of view nicely), PL just got awoxed so either they throw in the towel (not likely) or they get pissed and decide to be in vfk by end of aug (much more likely). Goon’s haven’t re-bribed BL so maybe someone can convince them to return to the north and kill goons support again. Still I would say the “Resource” issue has become moot. BTW I still don’t get fweddit but thats another story.

    July 8, 2013 at 5:24 am Reply

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