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GSF_HBC

Fiddler’s Note: The original of this article was published on May 9, five days ago, so it represents relatively old intel given the sudden acceleration of event brought about by the break-up of HBC. The most surprising is Goonswarm’s apparent decision to mobilize for taking a swing at Raiden. Mind, they are proceeding cautiously along that route, so assume a parallel metagame front is in progress. If they follow prior patterns, whether or not Goonswarm mounts a full blown invasion will depend upon the degree to which they can isolate Raiden.


“Noise is the opposite of information.”
    – Fischer Black

What remains of Honey Badger Coalition (HBC) after the departure of Test and company continues to unravel and that which remains lacks both the umbers and the organizational coherence to retain the HBC name. HBC is effectively ended and even among those alliances who’ve not formally announced their departure from the coalition, there’s a general consensus that this is the case. In place of the HBC we now have a swarm of alliances. Some, weary of being forced to toe the HBC line,  have determined to go it alone. Most, however seem to be trying to reform themselves into a number of very loosely coupled alliances. No formal coalitions with a centralized command and executive structures seem in the making at this point. The newly separated alliances are, at least for now, embracing a live-free-or-die philosophy.

Test Alliance Please Ignore’s Booda may not have been able to rope in Raiden as permanent blue after all. Word is there’s been a change of management in Raiden’s house and that, while Raiden’s exited HBC, they won’t be maintaining a long-term NAP with Test. Call it a plausible rumor for the moment. No reason given except ‘other interests’ on Raiden’s part, which could mean they’ve gotten a better offer.

The primary beneficiary of these events is the ClusterFuck Coalition (CFC). The breakdown of the HBC will have CFC breathing easier and assuming no extinction-level threats to them remain in nullsec. CFC will assume
ex-HBC alliances will fight among themselves, making non-CFC and non-PL regions a new thunder-dome.  That will leave CFC’s leadership with the leisure to play selected combatants off against the other while they tear each other to rags; very much the game their leadership prefers. Expect occasional CFC interventions, but none that puts the CFC at risk.

There’s some chatter of CFC taking on PL, the last credible threat to CFC left standing. My guess is that CFC will take no action against PL for the time being, but anti-PL sentiment within CFC’s leadership could change that. However, CFC leadership isn’t the type to bet the house on final Jeopardy if they’re well ahead in the game. That could change if PL looks to be benefiting too much from the current upheaval.

While it’s always possible that some alliances blown free of HBC’s gravity well could make trouble in CFC space, CFC leadership seems to regard this as a low-probability event and one that can be dispatched with relative ease should it occur. Nascent threats will be sought out early and strangled in their cribs.  None of the former HBC alliances, it is reasoned, will want to draw CFC’s attention, let alone its ire, lest they become extinct former HBC alliances.

The only real down-side for the CFC is that the HBC crash has created a cacophony of noise and an explosion of new variables in nullsec’s information flows. This will make the nullsec
board more difficult for CFC to predict and control.  Unexpected invasions or instability in CFC space would not be good for their post-Odessey plans for standing up an economic powerhouse independent of high sec. The absence of a coherent and controllable HBC will also make organizing cartels for controlling the price of high-value nullsec goods and materials much more difficult.

– Mord Fiddle

About the Author: Mord Fiddle’s writings are an invitation to high tea in a world of rave parties. His readers gather at http://fiddlersedge.blogspot.com/ for thoughtful analysis, daring prose, deep insights, and Mord’s tendency to use words not writ nor spoken conversationally since Middle English went out of fashion.

69 Comments

  1. Getinformed

    Raiden isn't going nowhere, their planned campaign were put on hold as goodfites appeared on their doorstep. How many times are you going to spin this inaccurate speculation seeded weeks ago?

    May 14, 2013 at 8:59 pm Reply
    1. I don't believe I said or implied that Raiden was going anywhere in the above article. I believe you may have misread something.

      Having said that, you've employed a double negative: "Raiden isn't going no where" is, in effect, saying that Raiden is are going somewhere. I believe your intent was to say Raiden is standing their ground against impending Goonswarm attacks which is consistent with the dockside news.

      May 14, 2013 at 9:29 pm Reply
  2. Bring the Pain

    Gewns can stay fat and happy …. for now.

    May 14, 2013 at 9:02 pm Reply
    1. God wills it!

      Fuck Cfc, GOD WILLS IT!

      May 14, 2013 at 11:37 pm Reply
      1. Repent ye sinners!

        Your time is at hand!

        May 14, 2013 at 11:44 pm Reply
    2. Tardilition

      Fuck cfc, just like penguins huddling in a group, it also seems to be from observation that retards also huddle into groups from the inevitable disbanding that would come from having to stand on their own two feet.

      May 15, 2013 at 1:19 pm Reply
    3. orly?

      Many have thought along these lines before. They came, enjoyed some early victories and had generally a good time. Fine.

      Staying around to win a sov war is another issue entirely….

      May 15, 2013 at 3:39 pm Reply
  3. Why not

    Rdn will stay and fight alongside their test bros.

    May 14, 2013 at 9:07 pm Reply
    1. Hmmm. So Test has committed to backing up Raiden in the event the CFC comes calling?

      Can someone get an official 'Amen' from Booda?

      May 14, 2013 at 9:32 pm Reply
      1. -A- is still shit

        Test have been showing to raidens defense fleets against the CFC (or the small bit that has actually deployed), they have a stratop scheduled for 2130 tonight for a raiden ihub coming out of ref. Actions louder than words v0v.

        May 14, 2013 at 9:43 pm Reply
    2. orly?

      How lucky for them…

      May 15, 2013 at 3:57 pm Reply
  4. Fiddler's Note: The original of this article was published on May 9, five days ago, so it represents relatively old intel given the sudden acceleration of event brought about by the break-up of HBC. The most surprising is Goonswarm's apparent decision to mobilize for taking a swing at Raiden. Mind, they are proceeding cautiously along that route, so assume a parallel metagame front is in progress. If they follow prior patterns, whether or not Goonswarm mounts a full blown invasion will depend upon the degree to which they can isolate Raiden.

    May 14, 2013 at 9:20 pm Reply
  5. Because...

    Raiden isn't going nowhere.

    So they are going somewhere? Or is your grammar just that awful?

    May 14, 2013 at 9:23 pm Reply
  6. Analyze This

    Literally the worst analysis of the current nullsec situation that I have yet seen. Your argument is flawed in so many ways but I will name a few.

    1) You imply that the HBC at some point represented an "extinction-level threat" to the CFC. While this may have been plausible under Montolio, in recent months it is clear this was never really the case.
    2) You completely forgot about N3. With the breakup of the HBC, the N3 coalition composed primarily of those blue to Nulli Secunda and NCdot is easily the second-largest coalition in EVE. N3 is decidedly hostile to the CFC in case you didn't know.
    3) Going with the assertion that the HBC as a whole was friendly to the CFC, HBC's breakup may cause some alliances to flip to the N3 side. This represents a net detriment to the CFC and a net gain for N3.
    4) It is impossible to "fight PL" in the solitary sense that you seem to imply. PL has plenty of existing blues and potential allies that would love to take a chunk out of the CFC, should PL have need.
    5) With the incoming nerf to tech, PL has much less incentive to stay friendly with the CFC. Should PL join the N3 in a campaign against the CFC, this undoubtedly would represent an extinction-level threat to the CFC. Indeed, if you look at the corps involved, an alliance between N3, PL, and Raiden would represent the most recent and coherent recreation of BoB/IT; their combined super numbers alone would dwarf those of the CFC.

    May 14, 2013 at 9:24 pm Reply
    1. -A- is still shit

      With the sole exception of init the alliances that made up the rest of the HBC were fucking terrible, N3 are welcome to them. As things stand N3 do not represent a threat to the CFC. If PL joined them they might make a fight of it but they would still not be capable of winning an offensive war against the CFC.

      May 14, 2013 at 9:49 pm Reply
      1. Analyze This

        I would agree. As you'll notice though, I never did state N3 represented an existential threat to the CFC without support.

        May 14, 2013 at 9:53 pm Reply
        1. -A- is still shit

          My apologies, I thought you had implied it in point two.

          May 14, 2013 at 10:08 pm Reply
      2. AAA FTW

        init. is shit and always has been jeez rdn is dead also

        May 14, 2013 at 11:10 pm Reply
        1. Namib

          rdn was never able to field one single fleet, has that changed ?!

          May 14, 2013 at 11:40 pm Reply
          1. Jarl!!

            Ask -A- and DD

            May 15, 2013 at 6:49 pm
      3. God wills it!

        No so, we can use Dotbros war as an example here. Dotbros a 5th the size of cfc forces managed to win 90% of the fights, demoralised cfc, but cfc were a le to win eventually after 3 and a half months the structure grind due to pure N simply mass numbers advantage.
        Now dotbros have developed into a much bigger and organised force of N3, I'd have money that if it happened again N3 would not only win most of the fights they would also seriously be able to compete in the structure grind. Both having similar sized super fleets, but N3s supers and pilots in general being far more experienced and competant. Put PL I the mix with N3 vs CFC and CFCs super fleet would not stand a chance would be Asakia all over again.

        May 14, 2013 at 11:32 pm Reply
        1. Serious

          a question though, would not all the Russians that the N3 just fought side with the CFC? There is a history there and I can't see them jumping on the N3 side?

          May 15, 2013 at 1:54 am Reply
          1. God wills it!

            Aye but Russians (solar) gaurnateed wait for an opportunist moment and take what they can when there opponents backs are turned or their opponents are weak. Doubt they will fight along side cfc. Russians did that once in dotbros war and it cost them almost everything. Would be stupid to make that disgraceful mistake of helping cfc again!

            May 15, 2013 at 10:08 am
          2. -A- is still shit

            No they didn't fight along side us, they just tried to take some moons fromNC. while they thought they were too busy to defend them, EN24 reporting =/= fact.

            May 15, 2013 at 11:31 am
          3. AAA will return

            solar helped cfc because nc. invaded solar before nc. was at war with cfc… you can't blame them for that…. also there are other russian allainces besides solar and trust me they hate goons more then n3

            May 15, 2013 at 12:20 pm
          4. God wills it!

            Solar tried leaching NC. Tech while dotbros were fighting cfc.
            And yes on several occasions cfc supported Solar against Dotbros. BRs don't lie, remember seeing on an alt goons forming cane/drake fleets. Giving they stupid grunt the idea that they were roaming LOL but as predicted it was to support solar.

            May 15, 2013 at 1:03 pm
        2. Fletch

          NC. Bang on about that defence more than the British bang on about Dunkirk or the Yanks the Alamo.
          The result in all 3 is the same defeat.
          Not to mention defending in any war is easier than attacking.
          I'm no CFC fan boy, but NC. Lack the will and the logistical ability for fighting lengthy Sov wars in my opinion.
          It needed the full weight of N3 plus PL to beat solar I doubt NC. On their own would of got the job done.

          May 15, 2013 at 1:50 pm Reply
          1. Tardilition

            Your a retard NC. Was beating solar and pets with evoke before the dotbros war. Plain an simple you have little knowledge of how NC. Fight. They lost dotbros war yes. Any other alliance would of not even attempted or would of been slaughtered within a couple of weeks. The fact they lost does not matter to any that enjoy fun and content. Dotbros held out for 3 and a half mints slaughtered cfc fleets in fights but couldn't win the race for structure grinding. As is to be expected when its 6:1 odds in favour of cfc.
            The fact that dotbros slaughtered fleets upon fleets of cfc massively outnumbered killed several titans and SCs without loss shows how well they done to inspire the eve community. They were called Spartans. But yes they lost and cfc won a shallow victory that no one remembers anything of note that thu did only what dotbros did. I'd have content and fun over a mass blob of scrubtards any day.
            3 types of people in eve. Bears, profit makers and what eve was made predominately for people who like content and fun (fights/challenges)

            May 15, 2013 at 7:20 pm
          2. Tardilition

            Plus dotbros fought both cfc & solar/pets for the duration of the war. So if NC. Cannot sustain a war, why is it that NC. Sole purpose is war and fights. Your ignorant that's all!

            May 15, 2013 at 7:22 pm
      4. no… Init are shit. So shit -A- beat them over and over and over..

        Raiden are good, but they have had their s^&* pushed in so many times that they flip sides faster then a women on the wet spot.

        May 15, 2013 at 7:39 pm Reply
        1. -A- is still shit

          Shows you jaw bad the rest are tbh, when init is by far the best of them

          May 15, 2013 at 8:12 pm Reply
          1. battery leg

            lol -a- never beat init. stainwagon, rol, -a- and about 15 other alliances did. -a- on their own have always been useless

            May 15, 2013 at 10:00 pm
          2. -A- had always lead the stainwagon spearhead. -A- on their own were more then capable of taking on any other alliance 1 to 1. This is why we had to take them out.

            May 16, 2013 at 7:39 pm
    2. Thanks for the N3 intel updates. As I point out below, the original of this article was published five days ago and events have been on a romp.

      You'll note I don't say that HBC sans PL was an extinction level threat to the CFC. The nightmare scenario for CFC, as described by Mittani himself, was HBC, PL and N3 allied against CFC. Any two of the three together might make for a rough fight – but all three would get ugly in a hurry for the CFC. HBC dissolving prevents that threesome, at least on paper.

      No-one is more aware of the down-sides of a stand-up fight with PL than the CFC metagame team. At the same time, the CFC cannot allow PL to take sides with anyone else against CFC for the very reasons you describe above. Thus I'd say they are next on the list. Indeed, the very difficulty PL poses makes them an intriguing target for the men and women in the CFC's smoke filled rooms: They'll be very aware that a take-down of PL could not be based solely on combat. I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions there. 😉

      May 14, 2013 at 10:07 pm Reply
      1. Analyze This

        My analysis was as valid a week ago as it is today. And since I am not privy to N3 intel updates, I can't speak for their intentions.

        No disagreements on your second point. However, as I think hindsight demonstrates, the "nightmare scenario" was probably more wishful thinking that feasible scenario. It is clear that elements within both PL and Test/HBC had no desire for such a war. I do wonder if that has changed.

        It is not a matter of what the CFC will "allow" PL to do; it is a matter of what PL WANTS to do. I do not mean to imply PL is powerful enough to do whatever they want; they need allies and/or meatshields as much as any alliance in nullsec sov warfare. However, PL is clearly powerful enough to have a large degree of flexibility in what they can realistically achieve and can thus choose their own direction to a certain extent. If PL is to stay friendly or neutral to the CFC than they were never a threat in the first place. If they shoot the CFC then they will do so with friends and will represent a threat to the CFC. Either way, your analysis was flawed.

        Now if you'd like to put on a tinfoil hat and say PL will be taken down by some meta-gaming actions such as hacking, defections, alliance-disbanding, etc., then you are either privy to information way more classified than my own or you are engaged in wishful/delusional thinking.

        May 14, 2013 at 10:23 pm Reply
        1. Ashesofempires

          PL won't make any decisions until they find out what's going to happen to their ISK sources. You can bet that the moment the new most valuable moon goo is found, PL will be around to grab every moon they can once the moons are redistributed.

          May 15, 2013 at 6:19 am Reply
          1. toastin poaster

            we already know what is happening to isk sources

            May 15, 2013 at 3:26 pm
      2. Leroy from kugu

        Kugu is more accurate than this pile of turds

        May 14, 2013 at 10:34 pm Reply
      3. PL doesn't take sides, unless it is absolutely necessary, PL enjoys 3 ways too much.

        If there isn't blood in the water and a better place to feed elsewhere you can guarantee PL will change tack.

        -A- was a special case and required HBC to be made, purely to knock it down from a very strong position. Now the south is a beautiful feeding ground, let the frenzy begin!

        May 15, 2013 at 7:35 pm Reply
        1. R Foley

          PL choose to knock down -A- for the simple fact that in doing so PL could maintain is ISK sources, as -A- is and historically is (with a few exceptions) content to stay south. That made them a perfect target. Especially given that PL attacked in the middle of a war.

          It could be argued that attacking -A- had its motives somewhat driven by greed. And boredom. And oh so lovely Supercap meta gaming. PL= Opportunistic thugs.

          May 16, 2013 at 7:33 am Reply
          1. yea I agree there is always the boredom.. and -A- and solar where the only things at that time that were

            1. Not blue 2. Big enough so they would fight back and would do something stupid like drop supers then warp them… to an outpost. 3. Didnt break tech agreements

            Now as things stand PL is gonna enjoying freedom of all targets, as it should be.

            May 16, 2013 at 7:43 pm
    3. I'm with stupid

      I think Raiden had better pick a side, or they will be a speed bump between CFC and N3.

      May 15, 2013 at 2:37 am Reply
      1. Namib

        but but but … Raiden could send its half fleet to init .. they could work together like in the old betrayal days … ^.^

        May 16, 2013 at 7:30 pm Reply
    4. toastin poaster

      N3 is a joke. I'm more worried about 401k than n3 as a goon.

      May 15, 2013 at 3:11 pm Reply
    5. orly?

      I'm pretty sure you don't have to worry about PL "joining you"

      What incentive would they have? Why would they want to even be associated with you?

      May 15, 2013 at 3:36 pm Reply
      1. anonymous

        You know that massive renting alliance known as Brothers of Tangra is a PL renting alliance and is smackdab in the middle of N3 space

        May 16, 2013 at 8:10 pm Reply
  7. Mercfromabove

    where is the news on CVA? i'm sure they have something exciting to talk about….. hahaha

    May 14, 2013 at 9:37 pm Reply
    1. Tsala Perud

      Never seen u in Provi?
      Well we like our nev neighbours and i would invite you to come so we can pvp one time

      May 14, 2013 at 10:22 pm Reply
      1. Mercfromabove

        I took up settlement there about 6 months ago killing everything i came across ^^ unfortunately, you can only stay so long before the CVA blob catches up with you 😛

        May 15, 2013 at 1:50 am Reply
  8. orly

    Raiden = BoB

    May 14, 2013 at 9:40 pm Reply
    1. Jakes

      There is more ex-BoB in GSF then in Raiden.

      May 14, 2013 at 10:30 pm Reply
  9. morewillcome

    Cfc fight PL? Hahahahahahaha, good one but one of them would have to actually risk losing stuff, so we know that won't happen…

    May 14, 2013 at 9:49 pm Reply
    1. God wills it!

      PL & cfc 2 risk averse fagots having a slap fight more would be funny. You would see a more real meaningful fight from a care home between 2 pensioners grappling over the last rich tea biscuit.

      May 14, 2013 at 11:58 pm Reply
      1. shadoos eyebrows

        let them duke it out and n3 grab more space while everyones distracted

        May 15, 2013 at 12:17 am Reply
  10. bestshot

    did mittens stop sucking cocks with his butt?

    May 14, 2013 at 10:26 pm Reply
  11. eve pilot

    the winner here could be N3 if they get their diplos to get on the ball play their cards right and start flipping ex HBC alliances starting with raiden they could end up with a coalition of potent anti CFC coalition to seriously challenge them in the coming months all it will take is some balls to pull it off

    May 14, 2013 at 10:33 pm Reply
    1. Namib

      N3 has a problem, they have this kidows in their partnership ex triumvirate leed fighters, they have shown many many times, that they dont have the long staying power to keep up with something… did they grew up in the last years?

      May 14, 2013 at 11:42 pm Reply
      1. God wills it!

        This triamvirate the same guys that pasted CFCs ass, were called Spartans, had the whole eve community inspired that such a small group could regularly slaughter cfc fleets into mittens dictatin that cfc were no longer aloud to fly mealstroms and had to fly drakes, killed several cfc titans Nd several cfc super carriers to no losses in the dotbros war, but didnt have the numbers to win the structure grinding with cfcs 6:1 odds advantage against them.Yea they live for fights ofc they will be seen where the fight is, and will be as before there when goons fall.

        May 14, 2013 at 11:53 pm Reply
        1. Nancydottee

          So you died brave, very useful. You still have a diplo problem that very few take you seriously. More like the unruly kid that you need to slap from time to time.

          May 15, 2013 at 9:22 am Reply
          1. Scrubswarm

            What's the use of having diplos that keep everything content-less, boring and secure for rmt/botting operations. What is the point of being as worthless as cfc when you can do what eve was intended to do… Have fun and create content and challenges.

            May 15, 2013 at 1:14 pm
    2. orly?

      The last thing an alliance needs to do is pick up some of the useless blubber that made the HBC fail. Many of them don't like N3 and some outright despise it. At first it looked promising but in the end the critical HBC error was gobbling up too many alliances too quickly. Resistance might have been futile during form-up but the resulting amorphous blob lacked coherence. Its members only really marched in step because there was a very big stick at the backside (whether used or perceived), regardless of how little carrot was dangling.

      May 15, 2013 at 3:46 pm Reply
  12. ex imp

    Still a better article then themartini

    May 14, 2013 at 10:48 pm Reply
  13. -A- is still shit

    http://eve-kill.net/?a=kill_related&kll_id=17
    I'll just leave this here….

    May 15, 2013 at 12:41 am Reply
    1. I'm with stupid

      Cyclones, hugins, and drakes vs Tengus and logi…… madness. What FC thought this was a good idea?

      May 15, 2013 at 2:40 am Reply
      1. -A- is still shit

        They had 350, we had 150, they thought they could win that.

        May 15, 2013 at 11:32 am Reply
    2. God wills it!

      The cyclones where of no concern against a tengu fleet of that size. The only mild concern would be the nagas, who the bombers had warping off all the time. With these fleet concepts against each other, numbers difference are of little concern, it would have been near impossible for the tengus to not win.

      May 15, 2013 at 1:09 pm Reply
      1. -A- is still shit

        Ah so when raiden died in 150 tengus to 300 drakes and called 1337 lvl during tenal they were just being shit? You're retarded.

        May 15, 2013 at 1:39 pm Reply
  14. Tylur Durdn

    Unclaimed. can't even win when blueballing 2:1, what an embarassment.

    First you'll get your CSAA taken, afterwards your space :)

    May 15, 2013 at 11:07 am Reply
  15. hurrhurr

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhbhASy3MoI ALL HAIL OUR CLUSTERFUCK OVERLORDS!

    May 15, 2013 at 12:07 pm Reply

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