Editor’s Note: The following opinion/analysis piece does not necessarily reflect the views shared by Eve News24, the opinion expressed are solely the ones from the author.

Analysis: The War in the North and what is to come – Part 1

I will try to express an objective opinion about the new Norther War that started in the last days of 2011 with the attack of GSF in Branch. In my opinion, the assault on Branch marks only the beginning of a campaign having as main goal the establishing of the new sov dominant super-power in Eve. GSF (Goonswarm Federation for those unfamiliar with this abbreviation) correctly assessed the extreme weakness of their older opponent WN (White Noise). The supercapital nerf combined with WN lack of leadership led to a very quick steamrolling of Branch by GSF and allies. We have to observe here that GSF were never friends with WN anyway. Therefore their action is a well calculated political and military move that at the moment establishes GSF as the major sov holder on the map. Mittani correctly assessed the situation and acted accordingly.

WN was unable to stop the assault on their systems in Branch. The lack of effective and active leadership will most probably lead to WN disbanding or anyway reorganizing under a new form and leadership. In fact the reason why GSF forces took Branch practically without any opposition is due exactly to this reason: lack of leadership from WN side. Politically and military speaking, WN practically ceased its existence for now. A regroup seems to be out of question for them since we see already 4 of their major corporations leaving or in the process of leaving the alliance. However, there is still the possibility for some of the WN corporations to form a new alliance while tactically withdrawing to NPC areas for now. Even if apparently WN is dead, we see that some fights continue in Branch even if with little strategic importance.

RAIDEN is another major player in the Northern War at the moment. In fact they are among the very few alliances that openly opposed GSF in their conquest of Branch. It is obvious that they were unable to flip the balance in any way even though we saw some great battles there. RAIDEN alone can not stand against GSF and allies especially because at the moment they are seriously outnumbered. TEST also conducted an attack on RAIDEN systems in Vale of the Silent forcing them to fight on two different fronts. So far TEST had little to no success in their campaign in the Vale of the Silent even though they managed to capture some systems without any strategical importance. Any confrontations between RAIDEN and TEST confirmed the clear military superiority of RAIDEN.

It is impossible not to observe here that RAIDEN acted in a way that was quite rarely seen in Eve. They stayed with their allies WN to the end even against impossible odds. Such honorable attitude is really rare. Their actions will most probably cost them their space as most probably GSF will not stop after taking Branch. RZR wants their former space back in Tenal and they are good GSF friends. Therefore I expect that soon after Branch campaign will be over, a new campaign to take Tenal will start. GSF are now at their peak in terms of power and therefore it would be a strategic error for them to stop before securing the last hostile territory directly connected to Branch. RAIDEN has been several times associated with BoB and with IT. There is a significant difference though between what RAIDEN is today and what BoB and IT were in the past.

Today, RAIDEN is one of the most powerful alliances with one of the most significantly active supercapital forces. Add to that a very effective and strong leadership with a high number of experienced and seasoned war veterans and you get a quite dangerous war machine. Their alliance is rich enough to sustain their fleets for months even in the absence of sovereignty. Therefore we may look here to a second PL in terms of warfare effectiveness. When GSF will attack Tenal, most probably RAIDEN will choose wisely to make a strategical withdraw to Venal (as they already started to do) if they won’t have strong allies to stand by their side.NC DOT the owners of Tribute are for the moment outside of the conflict. They chose to stay neutral while keeping blue status with many alliances. NC DOT was, alongside WN and RAIDEN one of the major actors that conquered the north almost eight months ago. While their relationship with GSF could be defined as neutral, most of the
current GSF allies have a strong dent against NC DOT because of their role in the falling of the former Northern Coalition. Therefore their lack of involvement in the current conflict was a major strategical error. Given their previous history, NC DOT will be the last target for GSF and allies after Branch and Tenal will be secured. Most probably GSF offered to NC DOT the same thing that they offered to RAIDEN: stay out of the conflict with WN and you will be allowed to keep your territory. While RAIDEN correctly assessed the situation and understood that no matter what Mittani is promising, GSF will not stop after taking Branch since there are too many old debts to be paid, NC DOT felt for the trap and accepted to remain neutral. This will basically cost them Tribute in the next 2 months.

Why am I saying this? Because history in Eve proved that unless you have strong allies, no alliance can hold significant sovereignty, especially in the very rich Northern areas. And after WN will be gone, after RAIDEN will be also out of the Tenal, NC DOT is basically left alone against GSF and allies. WN (as weak as it was) combined with RAIDEN and NC DOT would have been a serious opponent against GSF. Very soon, NC DOT will remain the last alliance with sov in the North, that was part of the old DRF coalition. And no matter what their leaders believe, neither GSF nor their allies will forgive them for this, especially since they will need to have some reds around. The only rich hunting grounds for GSF and allies will remain those in Tribute. The fact that NC DOT today is blue with both TEST and RAIDEN shows a serious lack of understanding in the political intricacies of the game. They sacrificed their future for an apparent safety into the present. In all major conflicts, if you want to stay relevant, you have to choose a side. By staying neutral, they passively helped achieve GSF objectives. Considering that GSF has a proven record to backstab even its allies (see Northern Coalition War) it is only a matter of time until NC DOT will become the new target of choice. At least RAIDEN acted with honor and respected their old friends even though they knew the chances to win were really slim.

In conclusion:

– GSF and Co. will most probably become the new 0.0 leading alliance in 2012. Props to Mittani for having achieved this as it definitely was not an easy feat. No matter what haters will say, GSF became a much better military force over time. They are able to bring impressive numbers in their fleets and they have some very good FCs.

– WN future is uncertain. From such internal turmoil, a star may rise or nothing at all. They had their moment and it is very difficult to foresee what their corporate members will really do.

– RAIDEN has a good chance to remain a star if they will wisely choose their fights. With or without sov, their player base is strong and experienced, so they can easily get over this difficult period. They proved to honor their friends and allies even when clearly they didn’t stand a chance to win. Props for that to their leadership team and to The Supremacy.

– NC DOT seems to be the only looser so far. While they have a solid military force, the inability of their leaders to pick a side will ultimately become their biggest problem. In Eve, neutrality never proved to be a winning card, no matter what.

– The Spartan

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254 Comments

  1. Maxitank

    Best article so far on evenews24.com. i hope this will be the new standard for 2012.

    January 7, 2012 at 1:35 pm Reply
    1. O.k

      So happy this isn't another fanboy article! Keep up the good poasting!

      January 8, 2012 at 4:17 pm Reply
    2. High Sec Pubbbbie

      Even Riverini has improved his articles. The website as whole as improved.

      NOTICE THE LACK OF MINTCHIP – PLEASE KEEP IT THAT WAY!!!!

      January 9, 2012 at 2:02 am Reply
      1. Zarian

        The less of that whore we see the better

        January 9, 2012 at 2:16 am Reply
  2. Allah Akbar

    90% of the time RDN. PL. NCDOT are used to fighting outnumbered or massivrly outnumbered & still absolutely slaughtering DC, take into account if RDN. & just 1 of the other Super powers joined forced DC would be hard pressed to say the least.
    Now further more say that PL. NC. RDN. Evoke & pets & DRF reminants decided to hit multiple targets & fronts on DC. That is more than likely to happen if DC continue to be pests!
    DC are useless enough just fighting reminants of DRF & RDN.
    If they have to fight on 2-3 fronts, the question would be how long would DC last, mass numbers count for so much,but the lack of quality within DC would deffinately show in a short amount of time.

    January 7, 2012 at 4:14 pm Reply
  3. test scum

    the war is over already?

    January 7, 2012 at 4:31 pm Reply
  4. goonfucker

    great article showing the meta-game of sov politics. great job

    January 7, 2012 at 5:54 pm Reply
  5. Totheknee

    White noise, like all other russian alliances. A paper tiger.

    January 7, 2012 at 6:01 pm Reply
  6. War Observer

    If one thing was shown by this war is how really militarily weak goonswarm federation actually is, looked by itself. Fast look at killbords from CFC-WN war, those few days that WN actually bothered to deploy and fight, we see that bulk of casualties and damage was made and suffered by goon pets.

    I would make rough estimate goons contributed about 20%, or even less of total CFC forces. It was not unusual that goon pet alliances such as RAZOR, TNT, FCON and FA have equal or better counts when deployed, and lost more ships then goons themselves, so I would say goons are militarily weaker then most of their pets Mittens somehow manages to control.

    Now punchline is that only alliance out of CFC that actually claimed sovereignty in Branch are Goons, and they will undoubtedly claim most of the tech moons >D

    I would say this is by far best and biggest of all Mitten's frauds to date, not only has he managed to screw over WN but all of its allies too. And to make things more ridiculous all those pets are actually grateful to him for ripping them of, completely clueless of what actuarially happened despite it being so obvious from killboards and sovereignty map! LOLROTF

    Mittens you magnificent bastard, this is the best one you puled to date! Kudos!

    January 7, 2012 at 7:55 pm Reply
    1. Derp

      I'd say goons probably made up a little over half of the forces in Branch with their allies between them making up the rest. I think you're about to be proven very wrong on who will be reaping the spoils of war – Branch will be going to the 'pets.'

      January 8, 2012 at 2:20 am Reply
      1. justaguy

        Derp is right, the only reason Goons have claimed the sov is because it was easy to have on alliance holding it. Sov will start to change as it's being dished out based on participation. Makes me laugh how people look at the sov map and kill boards and pretend to have a clue.

        January 8, 2012 at 11:40 am Reply
      2. War Observer

        You goons should learn that claiming you compose over 1/2 of CFC forces are not convincing but ridiculous as they are patently contradicted by API verified kill-boards. All you do is expose yourself as liars that demean contributions of your pets.

        January 9, 2012 at 8:38 pm Reply
    2. Blazde

      Why call them pets at the same time as acknowledging they contribute more?

      When did the pet term start to get so misused, I dunno *shakes head*

      January 9, 2012 at 1:31 am Reply
      1. Svinjche

        Its not about fleet contribution, its about their free will to do whatever their leadership wants to do. In this case, goon pets do not have leadership, they have good servants of goon leadership. Thus, they are pets.

        January 9, 2012 at 10:15 am Reply
      2. War Observer

        It is not strength but servility that defines a pet.

        January 9, 2012 at 8:38 pm Reply
  7. just-a-FA-grunt

    Everyone hates us now =(
    Maybe we haven't killed enough hostiles yet? =)

    January 7, 2012 at 10:26 pm Reply
  8. ncdofag

    NC. are pussy faggots

    i hear they are taking ROLS couch

    January 7, 2012 at 10:54 pm Reply
  9. Anti-Jovian

    The art of war in Eve is ……………..

    Amusing!

    January 7, 2012 at 11:30 pm Reply
  10. pooprscoopa

    NCdot's titan producing deal for PL is the only thing holding them back from getting involved right now. The whole idea of providing cheap supers to PL was to ensure that they wouldn't be attacked. Now, they don't need that agreement anymore if they choose to go with Raiden. WN won't dissapear completely either; they're still going to be allowed to hold their space in VoS as long as they continue to help out in the fight.

    January 8, 2012 at 12:27 am Reply
  11. Tyacg

    Great article! I'm very glad that as casual carebear I could understand all of these alliances names or parties and stuff between them – only and mainly because of how was it written here. Very well indeed, please keep this style :)

    January 8, 2012 at 12:34 am Reply
  12. Ralina_F

    NC. must not be big on history. Anyone recall how Hitler won the early stages of WWII? It wasn't by fighting everyone at once, oh no. Germany took several countries before they even got to Poland and WWII officially broke out. But at that point, it was to late. Russia was now allied, and France and England did not mobilize fast enough. So long Poland. He got all of this easily by placating other contries with, as they would find out, hollow promises.

    Except, NC. has no England or France(PL?). It has Czech and Hungary. And in this case, Germany(GSF) is beating those two sensless. Who will help NC. when their finished? I can think of far more people who would sooner do the opposite or go about their own campaigns.

    Then again, I do love the smell of a galaxy in flames.

    January 8, 2012 at 3:12 am Reply
    1. Mein Kampf

      Or….NC. could be allowing GSF to overextend their reach during this folly, as Germany did in Russia. I wouldn't count NC. out by a longshot.

      January 8, 2012 at 7:02 am Reply
      1. Ralina_F

        I would love to see NC. put a headbutt to the ovaries of GSF, but I question wether or not that would work. They would have to make a move soon, as the allies they can use are growing few. Much like BoB before, people will side with the seeming victor. Stratigically, the sooner the better.
        I'm sure GSF has an eye on NC. just as I'm sure NC. is not daft enough to think themselves safe.

        Much as it was in WWII, timing is very important. Time will tell what history cannot.

        January 8, 2012 at 7:13 am Reply
    2. Historwat?!

      Comparing NC. to Poland? They aren't that bad. but yeah, they will find themselves in a corner if they fail to act in a timely manner. Goons are letting something go? Doubtful.

      January 8, 2012 at 7:19 am Reply
    3. O.k

      Good thing Mother Russia (stainwagon, -A-, Solar and gypsy band) is coming to tha rescue!!!.. on the other hand NC. are dicks so we'll probably leave them to die

      January 8, 2012 at 4:20 pm Reply
  13. Grath

    Raiden are nothing without their allies. Now we have to go rescue Raiden.

    January 8, 2012 at 4:04 am Reply
  14. Dr. McPimpin

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpXSfsaG9Bo this shows test being all they can be >:D FUCK YOU RDN YOU FAIL!!!

    January 8, 2012 at 5:08 am Reply
  15. omg

    ncdot should team up with PL and RAIDEN, and then run incursions in AAA space together

    January 8, 2012 at 9:49 am Reply
  16. Allah Akbar

    Deklein Coalition are a joke in all honesty, they are failing like the Pro's they are atm just against RDN. & DRF reminants, when we saw this propaganda for DC, pretty much every1 ROFL
    DC may have started being abit of a pest, but shall soon be sorted out if they insist on throwing themselves against our walls, don't you worry about that XD shall have Goon noobs running for there caves soon enough,in other words the usual LOL,never kill them all off,as who else will there ever be, that so many people hate with such a passion, an who else would all the worse players in EVE go to if Deklein Coalition wasn't around, I say keep the cattle around so they can be farmed. If DC want to try for 0.0 domination I say bring it on, GFs to be had,many DC nubs to be slaughtered =D

    January 8, 2012 at 1:57 pm Reply
  17. Got to the part about ~space hono(u)r~ and stopped reading.

    January 8, 2012 at 2:41 pm Reply
  18. RIP IT

    The Raiden core are the same folks who showed zero loyalty to their own alliance, IT. So don't look for people to flock to Raiden's aid. You reap what you sow.

    January 8, 2012 at 5:14 pm Reply
  19. Gurista Pirates

    about what is to come – Pure Blind residents will move to Branch and whole Pure Blind will be Razor

    January 8, 2012 at 7:42 pm Reply
  20. Allah Akbar

    This is a screenshot from literally 10mins ago of just some of what awaits Goons & Pets, yes Goonies start to cry & start to ready your running shoes,as the usual fleeing of you scrubs will commence >=) http://bighugelabs.com/output/motivator4e0ddfd2cc

    January 8, 2012 at 8:33 pm Reply
  21. Allah Akbar

    This is a screenshot from literally 10mins ago of just some of what awaits Goons & Pets, yes Goonies start to cry & start to ready your running shoes,as the usual fleeing of you scrubs will commence >=) http://bighugelabs.com/output/motivator4e0ddfd2cc

    January 8, 2012 at 8:33 pm Reply
  22. Chewe

    This is a screenshot from literally 10mins ago of just some of what awaits Goons & Pets, yes Goonies start to cry & start to ready your running shoes,as the usual fleeing of you scrubs will commence >=) http://bighugelabs.com/output/motivator4e0ddfd2cc

    January 8, 2012 at 10:56 pm Reply
  23. Chewe

    This is a screenshot from literally 10mins ago of just some of what awaits Goons & Pets, yes Goonies start to cry & start to ready your running shoes,as the usual fleeing of you scrubs will commence >=) http://bighugelabs.com/output/motivator4e0ddfd2cc

    January 8, 2012 at 10:56 pm Reply
  24. Butterfly Effect

    Im sorry but everyone here thinks Raiden is done. I'm willing to bet that once gsf starts to really infiltrate raidens space , xxdeathxx and ncdot will aid eachother. as it'll be in both there favours not to let gsf control to much space.

    January 8, 2012 at 11:13 pm Reply
  25. xDEATHx pilot

    I wish Raiden. and WN good luck and GFs. Psixozzz is back too. Hope NC. will decide to help WN/Raiden. Cause together they can win this war.

    January 9, 2012 at 12:24 am Reply
  26. […] help their ally White Noise before helping themselves to some of the WN systems.  There has been some speculation and analysis about the Goonswarm long term plans in that […]

    January 10, 2012 at 6:26 pm
  27. […] help their ally White Noise before helping themselves to some of the WN systems.  There has been some speculation and analysis about the Goonswarm long term plans in that […]

    January 10, 2012 at 7:57 pm
  28. just another Fanboy

    "GSF has a proven record to backstab even its allies (see Northern Coalition War) "
    i wonder why i never had the feeling of being backstabed by Goons although i was in the NC….

    Maybe it was, because i was in one of the few NC alliances, that actually fielded some ship for the defence of the North. Maybe it was, because i saw firsthand, how pointless any defense was, if the leading entity on the one side failed taking over lead, planning and true commitment, while on the other side denying any offer from goons to take over lead and skymarshall the troups of the NC.

    … this whole "backstab" myth was to my eyes rather a matter of one overaged alliance leader not willing to hand over coalition lead to some one, who was active, capable and more than willing to coordinate the defense. If help is not wanted, sometimes you have to let people perish ….

    January 10, 2012 at 8:10 pm Reply
  29. […] the opinion expressed are solely the ones from the author. The Spartan bring us part two of the controversial analysis on the on-going war in the […]

    January 14, 2012 at 12:18 pm

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