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Market Discussion: Gallente Ice Part 3

This is a followup on Part 2 and Part 1.  Yesterday, Mittens announced the insurance payout changes that came in Crucible would not deter the continuing efforts of Goons to keep a stranglehold on Gallente Ice (Oxytopes, Oxygen Isotopes).

(11/29/2011 4:16:19 AM) [email protected]/directorbot: <Interdiction Mini-Update Begins>Interdiction continues, for your empire enjoyment! After the patch I will still pay bounties. You will receive a special FUCK CONCORD BONUS with your bounty request equal to:  Platinum_Insurance_Payout – Platinum_Insurance_Cost + Bounty = Bling.  CCP, Haters gonna hate, you cannot curtail our fun so long as we swim in mountains of technetium.  Fellow interdictors, enjoy! <Interdiction Mini-Update Ends>

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So, the empire ice miners can’t relax yet.  We are coming up on the 60 day mark for the interdiction now and the Crucible changes impact both the consumption and the interdiction (thought it seems the impacts for goons were immediately mitigated by the above announcement.  So, how has the market reacted?

Have a look:

 

Prices are slumping.  Hurray!  The interdiction is broken?  No.  As I stated in Part 2, part of the increase two weeks ago was due to a recent redeployment of a lot of capital ships to the south.  So, the flip side of that statement is that demand will decrease when the supers have finished deploying and are all fueled back up.  Of course, Red Arrow and A-team have been going at it (and Test/PL threw down against Chribba as well – that report is in process) recently, and that’s not counting all the structures everyone has been dropping supers to reinforce/kill that don’t develop into a fight.  So consumption didn’t really start to slump until last week as all the super pilots buttoned down the hatches for the expansion.  Let’s face it, it would suck to logoff in enemy territory before the expansion then find all your drones were in some station several jumps away after the expansion (yay CCP for the expansion, but I wouldn’t risk my super on them getting all the bugs for the expansion worked out).

With supers now nerfed, most people assume supers will not be used as frequently.  Market speculators will likely have reacted to this assumption, which likely is weighing down the price a bit.

The next thing I suggested was that people who run towers had been holding off on buying Oxygen Isos to begin building fuel pellets in hopes that the interdiction would end before they needed the new fuel.  A few days after the explanation of how pellets would work, a CCP dev mentioned in the forums that they were going to reinstate the fuel efficiency bonus of faction towers.  About a week before the expansion, it was in a dev blog.  This would obviously weigh down the demand for the isotopes as well (you can see the hit the other isotopes took about a week ago – my fuel hungry ships thank you).

Last, but not least, copycats.  There are a lot of sheeple on the planet.  There are many in Eve.  There were likely many people impacting the ice interdiction for no better reason than other people were doing it.  They either won’t get the announced reimbursement or may not not know about the reimbursement increase.  So, there will likely be a few less wolves culling the ice bears.  However, Goon pilots are still going strong.  So, we can’t expect this to be anything more than the price settling from the Crucible changes at this point.  I will be watching the price the next few weeks (or until the interdiction ends) to see if it sinks much below 1000 isk/unit.

TL;DR – The price of Oxygen Isotopes has decreased, but that was kind of expected for reasons out of the control of Goons.

Now, on to two other market topics that were brought up in these discussions.

The non-isotope ice products used as tower fuel.  As was stated two weeks ago, ozone and water had increased in price as well.  Ozone had almost immediately begun to slump, and stabilized slightly higher than before talk about the tower changes occurred.  Water, on the other hand, is still on the rise.

 

People are likely still stocking up on water for the fuel pellets.  Possibly purchases made because of miscalculations or any number of reasons.

Finally, there is the question of PLEX prices.

 

About three weeks ago, Nulli Secunda’s Dsan wrote a blog arguing that there was heavy speculation impacting the price of PLEX.  Initially, people were skeptical.  Other bloggers picked up the topic and it began spreading like wildfire that the prices were artificially inflated.  In the span of four days, the price crashed by about 40 million isk per PLEX (8%).  Over the next few days, it buoyed again, likely on the back of all the bitter vets returning by burning their isk stockpiles a bit to take a look at Crucible.  However, the price is continuing to drop again.  Was there market manipulation?  Was it nothing more than people resubbing?  I will keep on eye on PLEX prices and if they keep crashing, we might need to do another article on them in the future.

Bagehi – Destroyer of Economics

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16 Comments

  1. anatlasgoon

    The PLEX kick (initially) was the result of people resubbing a main, grinding some incursions, and plexing up their alt accounts. It's what I did, at least.

    The PLEX drop, on the other hand, is a result of people getting time off for holidays (expect a similar slump in late November) and buying PLEX to sell on the market for quick ISK. A lot of people play EVE just long enough to have some 0.0 pew-pew and don't believe in grinding when a couple hours' worth of wages will buy them 450 mil.

    I'd predict that by the New Year, PLEX will drop to 400 per.

    Winter's here.

    November 30, 2011 at 9:32 pm Reply
    1. bagehi

      Yeah, that's my view of grinding for isk. When 450m isk is less than half an hour of work (PLEX)… it is really hard to get excited about grinding for isk in-game. From time to time, missions, complexes, anoms, etc are fun to do, but not for the income, just for the experience. I make isk in-game in a few ways simply for the amusement of it.

      November 30, 2011 at 10:53 pm Reply
      1. BitterVet

        Not everyone ears $40+ p/hour though.

        November 30, 2011 at 11:06 pm Reply
        1. BitterVet

          *earns

          November 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm Reply
        2. anatlasgoon

          Actually, it's $35, and that gets you 2 PLEX, so technically, you only need to make about $20/hour (before taxes) to buy a PLEX with an hour of RL labor.

          November 30, 2011 at 11:21 pm Reply
          1. Pepo

            Yup, average wage in here is around 5 EUR/hour before taxes :) So, if you got good ratting/grinding setup, you can do it ingame in same time :)

            December 1, 2011 at 8:04 am
  2. rogueclone2

    god i hope your right witht he plexs

    November 30, 2011 at 9:58 pm Reply
  3. Gumpin

    at the current price of plexes. I'd rather grind 2 hours burning french fries than 50 hours of havens.

    November 30, 2011 at 10:22 pm Reply
  4. EVE…. Where everything is PvP.

    November 30, 2011 at 10:34 pm Reply
    1. Gumpin

      Eve logging in is PVPing vs CCP's Server maint.

      November 30, 2011 at 10:36 pm Reply
  5. guest

    heh, cheers for player-driven content.

    November 30, 2011 at 10:52 pm Reply
  6. DarthNefarius

    What no big rant that Incursions are causing the PLEX rise? Oh PLEX fell a little… must have been due to someone ending an Incursion too early then or one spawned in an low sec island :)

    December 1, 2011 at 1:54 am Reply
  7. VoodooPlexonomix

    Price went way up because people weren't spending money to buy PLEX's. Now there's a reason to want Isk (New Content, New wars), so the Supply is starting to catch up to the Demand.

    December 1, 2011 at 4:48 am Reply
  8. Plusoneforclarity

    Soooooooo? At what point will the eve community say, you know what Shittani? We like this open season too. Therefore, all of us who are blue to you are resetting you so that we can show you that the eve community can carry on just fine without you or your hoarde? Followed by the elimination of the DRF. If you want balance… you have to get your hands dirty children.

    December 1, 2011 at 7:00 pm Reply
    1. Goonswarm dude

      Ahahaha someone is sad about losing a hulk

      December 8, 2011 at 11:52 am Reply
  9. hulk shield hp

    the fucking ccp dont do nothing help the ice miner .. hulk shield too poor alway got gank by bc fuck the patch

    December 9, 2011 at 4:41 am Reply

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